A chance for showers this weekend in Calgary; more rain possible Monday

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Today has maintained a warm path - as of 2:30 p.m., we have not yet surpassed yesterday's high of 22.2 C, but we're on our way! It's 21.8 C. 

The remainder of our forecast details shake down much as they did this morning; a weak chance for showers or thundershowers persists Saturday, with another chance for rain Sunday, and rain expected Monday.

It's that Monday total that'll continue being a head-scratcher. I've drawn it out:

The weather charting here is the forecast valid Monday 6 a.m. MST. Apologies for the shoddily-drawn yellow arrow, but that band of moisture would be curling back over parts of southern Alberta. There are still a number of variables to this: when lows cross the Rockies, where do they drop in? How fast will it move, and how much precipitation will be embedded? These factors mean you'll see models suggesting Calgary could see 95.3 millimetres (no, really, that's what the 4-6 day GDPS says!) while others say six millimetres. It's tough to build a reliable, long-range precipitation model against the Rockies. We'll have a better idea this weekend. If I have to lean somewhere, it's 15-20 millimetres. Parts of Alberta will likely receive heavy showers.

MORNING EDITION: A slight chance for rain remains on Saturday in the afternoon, but if we can use the past to predict the future, it's a small enough chance that it'll be gone 48 hours from now.

I digress.

This has been a very, very strange week weather-wise, if only for what has, and has not happened yet. First, we had Sunday. That was the wettest day of the year. 10.9 millimetres. Then, Monday, we achieved a new wettest day of the year, with 24.2 millimetres of rain.

Yesterday, Calgary Weather Records made this note:

Today is #Calgary's first 22°C of the year, which is the latest since 1899-06-14. Typical first is April 28. Record earliest is Feb 27, 1992; latest Jun 14, 1899. #ABWx #YycWx pic.twitter.com/5VzSmivBJZ

— Calgary Weather Records🌤(@YYC_Weather) June 8, 2022

Today, the tilt from the upper jet will push in gusty conditions, with 30-40 km/h gusts locally. The projected high is 24 C, thus breaking the 2022 warmest day record.

So in the span of five days, we'll have achieved the two wettest consecutive days of the year, followed by the two warmest consecutive days of the year.

You go, Calgary.

Showers Saturday would be a sprinkle, if they happened. There's also a chance for a later-afternoon thundershower, but we can likely put that to bed by tomorrow, all patterns playing out as they usually do. Sunday evening may herald the start of some rainshowers locally.

Monday (and Tuesday) remain rainy, with a large lee low expected to cross through Montana. Depending on where exactly this takes place, another large quantity of rainfall could be on the way for parts of southern Alberta.

YOUR FIVE-DAY CALGARY FORECAST:

Thursday

• Evening: some cloud, low 12 C

Friday

• Mainly sunny
• Daytime high: 25 C
• Evening: mainly cloudy, low 13 C

Saturday

• Partly cloudy, chance of afternoon showers, isolated thundershowers
• Daytime high: 23 C
• Evening: mostly clear, low 8 C

Sunday

• Partly cloudy, scattered afternoon showers
• Daytime high: 18 C
• Evening: cloudy, chance of showers low 8 C

Monday

• Rain - 20+mm possible
• Daytime high: 15 C
• Evening: cloudy, showers, low 8 C

Tuesday

• Cloudy, showers
• Daytime high: 16 C
• Evening: cloudy, chance of showers, low 8 C

Today's pic was sent by Jeff of the magnificent sunset yesterday from his vantage in Cochrane.

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