Alberta's economic outlook a ‘mix of sun and cloud’: ATB report
ATB Financial is forecasting a ‘mix of sun and cloud’ for Alberta's economy in the years to come, according to a new report.
Compared to its previous study released in March, the new report is more optimistic when it comes to how Alberta will emerge financially from the global pandemic.
"Since we did the forecast earlier in the year, some positive developments have happened," said Rob Roach, ATB Financial's deputy chief economist. "One big one, which is always important for Alberta, is oil prices have performed better than we were expecting."
The higher-than-expected oil prices rising combined with increasing vaccination rates and a strong recovery south of the border is why ATB is now predicting Alberta's economy will see an estimated five per cent growth for the real GDP this year compared to its earlier outlook of 4.1 per cent.
ATB warns economic recovery will not happen overnight.
"Alberta was hit harder than the rest of the country by the one-two punch of the pandemic and the oil price crash so we have more ground to recover," said Todd Hirsch, vice president and chief economist at ATB Financial, in a press release.
"If people continue to get vaccinated, the economy is able to gradually reopen and OPEC continues to keep a lid on oil supply, Alberta’s recovery should stay on track."
However the economic contraction in 2020 was higher than expected —8.2 per cent versus 7.1 per cent — according to ATB’s study.
"It’s going to take until 2023 for our economy to catch up to where we were before the pandemic," said Roach.
The report also predicts unemployment in the province will stay relatively high.
"Alberta's energy sector has bounced back but ongoing constraints on growth mean we can't rely on it to generate another jobs boom," Hirsch said. "But industries such as tech, renewable energy, clean energy tech, agrifoods and a broad array of entrepreneurial activity bodes well for Alberta's economic future."
The outlook highlights some positive news on the financial front. Household savings in the country jumped from 1.3 per cent of disposable income in 2019 to nearly 15 per cent in 2020—an average of $5,574 per Canadian.
Retail sales in Alberta have improved and, according to the report, are well above pre-pandemic levels.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Senate expenses climbed to $7.2 million in 2023, up nearly 30%
Senators in Canada claimed $7.2 million in expenses in 2023, a nearly 30 per cent increase over the previous year.
Pedestrian, baby injured after stroller struck and dragged by vehicle in Squamish, B.C.
Police say a baby and a pedestrian suffered non-life-threatening injuries after a vehicle struck a baby stroller and dragged it for two blocks before stopping in Squamish, B.C.
Tom Mulcair: Park littered with trash after 'pilot project' is perfect symbol of Trudeau governance
Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair says that what's happening now in a trash-littered federal park in Quebec is a perfect metaphor for how the Trudeau government runs things.
Demonstrators kicked out of Ontario legislature for disruption after failed keffiyeh vote
A group of demonstrators were kicked out of the legislature after a second NDP motion calling for unanimous consent to reverse a ban on the keffiyeh failed to pass.
RCMP uncovers alleged plot by 2 Montreal men to illegally sell drones, equipment to Libya
The RCMP says it has uncovered a plot by two men in Montreal to sell Chinese drones and military equipment to Libya illegally.
Government agrees to US$138.7M settlement over FBI's botching of Larry Nassar assault allegations
The U.S. Justice Department announced a US$138.7 million settlement Tuesday with more than 100 people who accused the FBI of grossly mishandling allegations of sexual assault against Larry Nassar in 2015 and 2016, a critical time gap that allowed the sports doctor to continue to prey on victims before his arrest.
BREAKING Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko won't play in Game 2
The Vancouver Canucks will be without all-star goalie Thatcher Demko when they face the Nashville Predators in Game 2 of their first-round playoff series.
Man wanted in connection with deadly shooting in Toronto tops list of most wanted fugitives in Canada
A 35-year-old man wanted in connection with the murder of Toronto resident 29-year-old Sharmar Powell-Flowers nine months ago has topped the list of the BOLO program’s 25 most wanted fugitives across Canada, police announced Tuesday.
Doctors ask Liberal government to reconsider capital gains tax change
The Canadian Medical Association is asking the federal government to reconsider its proposed changes to capital gains taxation, arguing it will affect doctors' retirement savings.