Alberta's economic outlook a ‘mix of sun and cloud’: ATB report
ATB Financial is forecasting a ‘mix of sun and cloud’ for Alberta's economy in the years to come, according to a new report.
Compared to its previous study released in March, the new report is more optimistic when it comes to how Alberta will emerge financially from the global pandemic.
"Since we did the forecast earlier in the year, some positive developments have happened," said Rob Roach, ATB Financial's deputy chief economist. "One big one, which is always important for Alberta, is oil prices have performed better than we were expecting."
The higher-than-expected oil prices rising combined with increasing vaccination rates and a strong recovery south of the border is why ATB is now predicting Alberta's economy will see an estimated five per cent growth for the real GDP this year compared to its earlier outlook of 4.1 per cent.
ATB warns economic recovery will not happen overnight.
"Alberta was hit harder than the rest of the country by the one-two punch of the pandemic and the oil price crash so we have more ground to recover," said Todd Hirsch, vice president and chief economist at ATB Financial, in a press release.
"If people continue to get vaccinated, the economy is able to gradually reopen and OPEC continues to keep a lid on oil supply, Alberta’s recovery should stay on track."
However the economic contraction in 2020 was higher than expected —8.2 per cent versus 7.1 per cent — according to ATB’s study.
"It’s going to take until 2023 for our economy to catch up to where we were before the pandemic," said Roach.
The report also predicts unemployment in the province will stay relatively high.
"Alberta's energy sector has bounced back but ongoing constraints on growth mean we can't rely on it to generate another jobs boom," Hirsch said. "But industries such as tech, renewable energy, clean energy tech, agrifoods and a broad array of entrepreneurial activity bodes well for Alberta's economic future."
The outlook highlights some positive news on the financial front. Household savings in the country jumped from 1.3 per cent of disposable income in 2019 to nearly 15 per cent in 2020—an average of $5,574 per Canadian.
Retail sales in Alberta have improved and, according to the report, are well above pre-pandemic levels.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Doctors ask Liberal government to reconsider capital gains tax change
The Canadian Medical Association is asking the federal government to reconsider its proposed changes to capital gains taxation, arguing it will affect doctors' retirement savings.
Keeping these exotic pets is 'cruel' and 'dangerous,' Canadian animal advocates say
Canadian pet owners are finding companionship beyond dogs and cats. Tigers, alligators, scorpions and tarantulas are among some of the exotic pets they are keeping in private homes, which pose risks to public safety and animal welfare, advocates say.
Prince William and wife Kate thank public for birthday messages for son Louis
Prince William and his wife Kate thanked the public for their messages which had been sent to mark the sixth birthday of their youngest son Louis on Tuesday.
She was the closest she'd ever been to meeting her biological father. Then life dealt her a blow
Anne Marie Cavner was the closest she'd ever been to meeting her biological father, but then life dealt her a blow. From an unexpected loss to a host of new relationships, a DNA test changed her life, and she doesn't regret a thing.
How quietly promised law changes in the 2024 federal budget could impact your day-to-day life
The 2024 federal budget released last week includes numerous big spending promises that have garnered headlines. But, tucked into the 416-page document are also series of smaller items, such as promising to amend the law regarding infant formula and to force banks to label government rebates, that you may have missed.
Which foods have the most plastics? You may be surprised
'How much plastic will you have for dinner, sir? And you, ma'am?' While that may seem like a line from a satirical skit on Saturday Night Live, research is showing it's much too close to reality.
'Catch-and-kill' strategy to be a focus as testimony resumes in Trump hush money case
A veteran tabloid publisher was expected to return to the witness stand Tuesday in Donald Trump's historic hush money trial.
Quebec farmers have been protesting since December. Is anyone listening?
Upset about high interest rates, growing paperwork and heavy regulatory burdens, protesting farmers have become a familiar sight across Quebec since December.
South Korean sentenced to 14 months in jail for killing 76 cats
South Korean man has been sentenced to 14 months in prison for killing 76 cats in one of the country's most gruesome cases of animal cruelty in recent years.