Battle between UCP, NDP too close to call as provincial election inches closer: ThinkHQ
A new political poll surveying Albertans ahead of May's provincial election shows a deep divide within the province, with the governing United Conservative Party and Alberta's New Democrats fighting neck and neck for support.
ThinkHQ says if a provincial election were held tomorrow, the NDP hold a marginal edge with 46 per cent of the decided vote, statistically tied with the governing UCP with 45 per cent.
The firm says the Alberta Party remains well out of contention with only six per cent, followed by the Liberals at two per cent.
ThinkHQ Marc Henry says the governing UCP should have an easier path to re-election, with large support across rural Alberta.
"The results of this survey are a bit surprising, almost counter-intuitive," Henry said.
"The Smith government has released a 'chicken-in-every-pot' budget, are spending a lot on advertising the budget and their 'inflation-fighting' measures. Yet, they aren't seeing a return on that investment in the polls; in fact, they're down three points from January. Margin of error, but still."
ThinkHQ surveyed 1,122 people online between March 14 and 16.
Political experts say Calgary will be a battleground in the next election, deciding the outcome of the election.
ThinkHQ found the NDP lead in the city of Calgary among decided voters at 48 per cent, compared to 42 per cent for the UCP.
"If they can get that lead up to eight to 10 points, they'll win this," Henry said.
"The NDP basically need to get around 18 to 20 seats out of Calgary in order to win. The UCP need to hang on to six, seven or eight seats for them to win and not have to worry about other seats in other parts of the province."
However, the parties are evenly matched throughout the Calgary Metropolitan area, polling at 45 per cent each.
Premier Danielle Smith declined an interview with CTV outside her appearance in Cochrane at the Alberta Mid Sized Cities Mayors Caucus.
Her office says the party has come a long way in the polls since the fall.
"In the fall, the UCP was around 20 points down in the polls and now, less than six months later, we are tied with the NDP," press secretary Rebecca Polak said.
"This is a clear indication that Albertans have seen a positive change and have noted that our government is laser-focused on growing the economy, creating new opportunities, improving our health-care system and putting in the work to ensure that all Albertans can feel secure in their communities."
Joe Ceci, municipal affairs critic with Alberta’s NDP, says the ground made up in Calgary by the party speaks to what Calgarians are seeking in government come the next election.
"They can either vote for the UCP that is kind of doing things that people don't want, or they can focus on fixing health care, fixing education, making sure that we revitalize downtown Calgary," Ceci said.
In Edmonton, ThinkHQ says, voters are most likely to vote NDP, securing 64 per cent of the vote, compared with the UCP’s 24 per cent.
In small urban areas and rural communities, the UCP is expected to receive around more than 55 per cent of the vote.
One political scientist from the University of Lethbridge says there may be some divide from the staunch conservatives not supportive of a big budget recently passed by the UCP government.
"To some extent, the budget almost looks like it was an NDP budget," Trevor Harrison said.
"So, that goes against the grain of some people who have supported the party."
The poll found women or those under the age of 35 are more inclined to vote for Rachel Notley.
The majority of men and those over the age of 35 are more inclined to vote blue.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Alberta's provincial election is set for May 29.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
BREAKING New York appeals court overturns Harvey Weinstein's 2020 rape conviction from landmark #MeToo trial
New York’s highest court on Thursday overturned Harvey Weinstein’s 2020 rape conviction, finding the judge at the landmark #MeToo trial prejudiced the ex-movie mogul with improper rulings, including a decision to let women testify about allegations that weren’t part of the case.
BREAKING Monthly earnings rise, payroll employment falls: jobs report
The number of vacant jobs in Canada increased in February, while monthly payroll employment decreased in food services, manufacturing, and retail trade, among other sectors.
Doctors say capital gains tax changes will jeopardize their retirement. Is that true?
The Canadian Medical Association asserts the Liberals' proposed changes to capital gains taxation will put doctors' retirement savings in jeopardy, but some financial experts insist incorporated professionals are not as doomed as they say they are.
Remains from a mother-daughter cold case were found nearly 24 years later, after a deathbed confession from the suspect
A West Virginia father is getting some sense of closure after authorities found the remains of his young daughter and her mother following a deathbed confession from the man believed to have fatally shot them nearly two decades ago.
Something in the water? Canadian family latest to spot elusive 'Loch Ness Monster'
For centuries, people have wondered what, if anything, might be lurking beneath the surface of Loch Ness in Scotland. When Canadian couple Parry Malm and Shannon Wiseman visited the Scottish highlands earlier this month with their two children, they didn’t expect to become part of the mystery.
What do weight loss drugs mean for a diet industry built on eating less and exercising more?
Recent injected drugs like Wegovy and its predecessor, the diabetes medication Ozempic, are reshaping the health and fitness industries.
2 military horses that broke free and ran loose across London are in serious condition
Two military horses that bolted and ran miles through the streets of London after being spooked by construction noise and tossing their riders were in a serious condition and required operations, a British government official said Thursday.
'It was instant karma': Viral video captures failed theft attempt in Nanaimo, B.C.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
Fair in Ontario, flurries in Labrador: Weather systems make for an erratic spring
It's no secret that spring can be a tumultuous time for Canadian weather, and as an unseasonably mild El Nino winter gives way to summer, there's bound to be a few swings in temperature that seem out of the ordinary. From Ontario to the Atlantic, though, this week is about to feel a little erratic.