Battle between UCP, NDP too close to call as provincial election inches closer: ThinkHQ
A new political poll surveying Albertans ahead of May's provincial election shows a deep divide within the province, with the governing United Conservative Party and Alberta's New Democrats fighting neck and neck for support.
ThinkHQ says if a provincial election were held tomorrow, the NDP hold a marginal edge with 46 per cent of the decided vote, statistically tied with the governing UCP with 45 per cent.
The firm says the Alberta Party remains well out of contention with only six per cent, followed by the Liberals at two per cent.
ThinkHQ Marc Henry says the governing UCP should have an easier path to re-election, with large support across rural Alberta.
"The results of this survey are a bit surprising, almost counter-intuitive," Henry said.
"The Smith government has released a 'chicken-in-every-pot' budget, are spending a lot on advertising the budget and their 'inflation-fighting' measures. Yet, they aren't seeing a return on that investment in the polls; in fact, they're down three points from January. Margin of error, but still."
ThinkHQ surveyed 1,122 people online between March 14 and 16.
Political experts say Calgary will be a battleground in the next election, deciding the outcome of the election.
ThinkHQ found the NDP lead in the city of Calgary among decided voters at 48 per cent, compared to 42 per cent for the UCP.
"If they can get that lead up to eight to 10 points, they'll win this," Henry said.
"The NDP basically need to get around 18 to 20 seats out of Calgary in order to win. The UCP need to hang on to six, seven or eight seats for them to win and not have to worry about other seats in other parts of the province."
However, the parties are evenly matched throughout the Calgary Metropolitan area, polling at 45 per cent each.
Premier Danielle Smith declined an interview with CTV outside her appearance in Cochrane at the Alberta Mid Sized Cities Mayors Caucus.
Her office says the party has come a long way in the polls since the fall.
"In the fall, the UCP was around 20 points down in the polls and now, less than six months later, we are tied with the NDP," press secretary Rebecca Polak said.
"This is a clear indication that Albertans have seen a positive change and have noted that our government is laser-focused on growing the economy, creating new opportunities, improving our health-care system and putting in the work to ensure that all Albertans can feel secure in their communities."
Joe Ceci, municipal affairs critic with Alberta’s NDP, says the ground made up in Calgary by the party speaks to what Calgarians are seeking in government come the next election.
"They can either vote for the UCP that is kind of doing things that people don't want, or they can focus on fixing health care, fixing education, making sure that we revitalize downtown Calgary," Ceci said.
In Edmonton, ThinkHQ says, voters are most likely to vote NDP, securing 64 per cent of the vote, compared with the UCP’s 24 per cent.
In small urban areas and rural communities, the UCP is expected to receive around more than 55 per cent of the vote.
One political scientist from the University of Lethbridge says there may be some divide from the staunch conservatives not supportive of a big budget recently passed by the UCP government.
"To some extent, the budget almost looks like it was an NDP budget," Trevor Harrison said.
"So, that goes against the grain of some people who have supported the party."
The poll found women or those under the age of 35 are more inclined to vote for Rachel Notley.
The majority of men and those over the age of 35 are more inclined to vote blue.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Alberta's provincial election is set for May 29.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Young people 'tortured' if stolen vehicle operations fail, Montreal police tell MPs
One day after a Montreal police officer fired gunshots at a suspect in a stolen vehicle, senior officers were telling parliamentarians that organized crime groups are recruiting people as young as 15 in the city to steal cars so that they can be shipped overseas.
'It was joy': Trapped B.C. orca calf eats seal meat, putting rescue on hold
A rescue operation for an orca calf trapped in a remote tidal lagoon off Vancouver Island has been put on hold after it started eating seal meat thrown in the water for what is believed to be the first time.
Man sets self on fire outside New York court where Trump trial underway
A man set himself on fire on Friday outside the New York courthouse where Donald Trump's historic hush-money trial was taking place as jury selection wrapped up, but officials said he did not appear to have been targeting Trump.
Sask. father found guilty of withholding daughter to prevent her from getting COVID-19 vaccine
Michael Gordon Jackson, a Saskatchewan man accused of abducting his daughter to prevent her from getting a COVID-19 vaccine, has been found guilty for contravention of a custody order.
Mandisa, Grammy award-winning 'American Idol' alum, dead at 47
Soulful gospel artist Mandisa, a Grammy-winning singer who got her start as a contestant on 'American Idol' in 2006, has died, according to a statement on her verified social media. She was 47.
She set out to find a husband in a year. Then she matched with a guy on a dating app on the other side of the world
Scottish comedian Samantha Hannah was working on a comedy show about finding a husband when Toby Hunter came into her life. What happened next surprised them both.
B.C. judge orders shared dog custody for exes who both 'clearly love Stella'
In a first-of-its-kind ruling, a B.C. judge has awarded a former couple joint custody of their dog.
Saskatoon police to search landfill for remains of woman missing since 2020
Saskatoon police say they will begin searching the city’s landfill for the remains of Mackenzie Lee Trottier, who has been missing for more than three years.
Shivering for health: The myths and truths of ice baths explained
In a climate of social media-endorsed wellness rituals, plunging into cold water has promised to aid muscle recovery, enhance mental health and support immune system function. But the evidence of such benefits sits on thin ice, according to researchers.