Chinook wind has Calgary flirting with double-digit temperatures

CALGARY -

There are a number of weather warnings in place for B.C. and Alberta; in B.C., there are rainfall warnings calling for up to 150 millimetres along Vancouver Island... much of that has already fallen, but that's still on its way down. Inland, it's more of the same.

In the mountain parks, the Icefields Parkway is under a winter storm warning. Up to a foot of snow is possible in spots between Jasper and Lake Louise, but that moisture is predominantly sticking in the higher elevations. The foothills through Crowsnest Pass, Cardston, K-Country, Nordegg, and the Peace River Valley are under wind warnings, with triple-digit gusts possible.

Calgary may see gusts in the high 40s from this event. Early this morning, mid-30s gusts brought us to 7 C, and we'll likely top that for our high today. Tomorrow, the trend continues, and then we dive into something of a "one-day trough" - Saturday's cooler. After that, another burst of warmth builds Sunday under a ridge of high pressure.

It's been quite the month for us. We'll get the full stats-page as it rolls closer, but with seasonal average high and low temps for November in Calgary at 3 and -8 C, we're presently sitting at 8.0 and -5.3 C. We'll close out the month with temperatures largely above these values. The other element at play is precipitation; the seasonal normal is only 17 mm for November - and some of that is usually rain - this month, we're likely to stay at our current 3.3 mm. Most of that was snow (3.2 cm, and we know it didn't stick long).

Our cycle of repetition from cool to warm is also a repeat for those B.C. conditions. The inundation of rainfall and its effects in B.C. are noted here.

Why's this happening?

A number of scientists are pointing to the Pacific Decadal Oscilliation:

Incredible set up once again N America in coming days

A powerful #jetstream driving low pressure & heavy #rain into W #Canada..#PineappleExpress

High pressure & very dry air to south of the jet across the W USA ..often a symptom of the negative #PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation pic.twitter.com/txmaNKLm6a

— Marco Petagna (@Petagna) November 24, 2021

We most often discuss El Nino and La Nina; those are teleconnections (both part of the Southern Oscillation); they're massive shifts in weather patterns that can dictate weather elsewhere. So, the tweet above provides some correlation to the massive events on the west coast.

SO...

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) just had its lowest October value (negative) on record (since 1854!) 📉

-2.648

Unbelievable.

— Ryan | Forecast (@RyanMaue) November 23, 2021

Multiple waves it is...

YOUR FIVE DAY FORECAST

Today:

• Partly cloudy, chinook-derived west wind (40-50 km/h)
• Daytime high: 11 C
• Evening: some cloud, low 1

Friday:

• Mainly sunny, southwest wind
• Daytime high: 10 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -3

Saturday:

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high: 3 C
• Evening: cloudy periods, low 1 C

Sunday:

• Sunny
• Daytime high: 10 C
• Evening: cloudy periods, low 0

Monday:

• Mainly sunny
• Daytime high: 7 C
• Evening: cloudy periods, low 0 C

A wee glitch in the Matrix means no weather photos today! We'll be back with those Monday.

You can submit your photos here, email me here, or tweet them over!