Heat warnings will drop soon; storms possible this weekend in Calgary
AFTERNOON UPDATE: Tonight has a small chance to yield showers, still, to add to the haze and cloud we've been offered. Wind speeds are quite strong already this afternoon, with gusts steady around 40 km/h this week.
Moving into the weekend, storm risks remain, and with them, our chance for severe storms has fallen. It's not gone - but it's dropped substantially in the wake of our ongoing convective inhibition. Otherwise, the storm risk is starting to populate a bit higher Sunday.
MORNING EDITION: It took a few days to get there, but we're starting to see the visualized editions of the thunderstorm potential in our forecast for Saturday evening.
The chance is slimmer even now than it was yesterday; a crisper model image displays instead that activity could deviate wide around Calgary. The current renderings are all over the map; some models are calling for a 3 p.m. storm tomorrow, and others think it won’t roll by until 2 a.m. Sunday. I look at our best chance for storms as part of the daytime heating cycle; therefore, storm activity around the dinner hour becomes most likely.
I have been remiss to mention today's conditions – they simply don't amount to much in our case. Hot, dry conditions are the dominant feature of our forecast. The heat warning continues.
Skipping ahead to Sunday, another shot at showers or thundershowers will sit staunchly atop Saturday's motion; in fact, Sunday holds dependencies on what Saturday does. If we don't get much Saturday, we’re less likely to deal with it Sunday. Convective inhibition may play that role.
After a lengthy stay beneath the ridge, we're on our way out thereafter. It’ll still take until the midweek, but seasonally-normal conditions are coming, and they're bringing showers along for the ride.
YOUR FIVE-DAY CALGARY FORECAST
- Evening: risk of showers early, low 17 C
- Partly cloudy, risk of p.m. thundershowers
- Daytime high: 30 C
- Evening: showers, risk of thundershowers, low 16 C
- Partly cloudy, risk of p.m. thundershowers
- Daytime high: 27 C
- Evening: clear, low 16 C
- Partly cloudy, p.m. showers
- Daytime high: 28 C
- Evening: clear, low 15 C
- Scattered showers
- Daytime high: 22 C
- Evening: clear, low 13 C
- Mainly cloudy, scattered showers
- Daytime high: 23 C
- Evening: clear, low 14 C
Helen near Milk River caught a nice sunset pic for the photo of the day.
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