New poll shows tight race between NDP and UCP in Calgary: Angus Reid

A new poll shows a statistical dead heat in Calgary, and the final results are likely to determine which party forms government May 30th.

The poll found 49 per cent of Calgary voters intend to vote for the NDP in the coming election, while 46 per cent planned to vote UCP.

The poll was conducted between May 12 and 16 as a random sample of 1374 Angus Reid Forum members. It is considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points 19 times out of 20.

The close race tends to favour the UCP.

"It really comes down to the NDP has to have the election of its lifetime in Edmonton and the election of its lifetime in Calgary to be in a position to form government," said Shachi Kurt, president of Angus Reid Institute.

"The challenge is that young people do not vote with the same level of turnout as older people," Kurl says. "So we're seeing a big age skew here. Younger people skewing NDP, older people skewing UCP."

This paragraph from the latest @angusreidorg poll is critical. Gen Z and millennials made a huge difference in the US midterms. Will they vote this time? pic.twitter.com/rQ1S3kKhfK

— Naheed Nenshi (@nenshi) May 17, 2023

TIGHT VICTORY BRINGS CHALLENGES: MAR

Gary Mar is a former PC cabinet minister and held a number of foreign diplomatic posts. He is now president and CEO of Canada West Foundation, a non-partisan think tank.

He says no matter who wins the most seats, a tight victory could bring its own challenges.

"Regardless of who becomes the premier of Alberta, they may face one of the largest oppositions ever in the history of the province," Mar says. "It'll also have a big impact on how you run your caucus."

"If you've got a small majority, four or five people within your own caucus, could say, look, there's something that you're not paying enough attention to. So you gotta pay attention to us. Otherwise, we'll withdraw our support for your majority vote in the legislature on the main agenda that you want to deal with."

The Angus Reid Poll also showed that both leaders have seen a slip in reputation over the past two weeks. It found 41 per cent of people had a worsening view of UCP leader Danielle Smith, while 32 per cent felt that way about NDP leader Rachel Notley.

PERCEPTION BECOMING REALITY

Kurl says public perception of the leaders is becoming baked in and unlikely to shift substantially down the stretch.

New today: Alberta Election: 2023 race hinges significantly on Battleground Calgary and turnout of younger votershttps://t.co/NjrvvAiQsw pic.twitter.com/eRR5PLR7to

— Angus Reid Institute (@angusreidorg) May 17, 2023