Premier Smith in byelection battle for Brooks-Medicine Hat seat

It's up to voters in the Brooks-Medicine Hat electoral district to decide whether Premier Danielle Smith will secure her seat in the legislature.

Polls for Tuesday's byelection close at 8 p.m. while advanced voting wrapped up on Saturday.

Despite the high-profile nature of this byelection, there was little interest in advanced voting, with just 12.4 per cent (4,231) of eligible voters (34,060) sending in their ballot early.

That's only about half of the advance votes that were cast in the 2019 general election when voter turnout was a whopping 68 per cent province-wide - the highest voter turnout in nearly 40 years.

"Byelections typically see meagre turnout. I would think with the premier, it would have had a higher profile, especially at the tail-end of her leadership debates that went on for quite some time," said Jim Groom, a political science instructor at Medicine Hat College.

"I thought those debates would have heightened the awareness of everybody here, but it really has seemed rather sedate as to the response so far."

There are five candidates in the race, including Smith.

Gwendoline Dirk is the Alberta NDP candidate and Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita is in the race. The field is rounded out with Bob Blayone of the Independence Party and Jeevan Mangat, the interim leader of the Wildrose Independence Party.

"Byelections can be quirky entities, but Danielle Smith should win, and she should win by a substantial margin," said Faron Ellis, a political scientist at Lethbridge College.

"She's not from the riding, so she might not know the areas as intimately as some of the other candidates. For some, those issues will come into play but very rarely do electors get the opportunity to have the premier represent them."

Although Smith is the favourite to win the byelection, according to political commentators that spoke to CTV News, if the premier fails to earn a seat in the legislature, it would be a crushing blow for both her and the United Conservative Party.

"Smith wants to introduce the Alberta Sovereignty Act herself. That's her first order of business, as she said during the leadership campaign, to get that piece of legislation introduced in the legislature. Without a seat, she can't do that herself," said Ellis.

"Given how she won the leadership, her number one priority is to get that Sovereignty Act introduced so that people can actually see the details and start debating something more than just hearsay."

The Brooks-Medicine Hat byelection was called on Oct. 11 after UCP MLA Michaela Frey announced her resignation.

It comes as the Calgary-Elbow electoral district remains vacant following UCP MLA Doug Schweitzer's resignation on Aug. 31.

"I definitely think part of the strategy of the UCP is to appeal to the rural voters, and by having a premier elected in a rural riding, it demonstrates their support for the rural communities and that their position is entrenched in that regard," said Groom.

"It has to be a pretty significant victory in order to persuade us all that even a conservative riding like Brooks-Medicine Hat is fully behind her. An important thing is not only the turnout but also the support that she gets, which has to be pretty high in order for her to make the case that she was successful."

With files from CTV News' Ryan White