The Thursday afternoon/evening update: showers? Not nearly as likely

UPDATE: First, thundershower potential has all but quit for your Thursday evening. Rainshowers are a distant possibility.

The Friday forecast still involves that "chance of" a thundershower, with a better risk of rain. Central Alberta is the primary recipient again. Saturday, there's now an incredibly small chance of rain, and that's baked into another wave of showers for, you guessed it, Central Alberta.

Sunday and Monday are the warm spots, but as our forecast tends to do, we're right back into shower potential Tuesday, and it may carry on out to Friday, but since we're talking about eight days from now, we may have to press pause on promising precipitation locally. For now.

Thursday’s forecast for Calgary has undergone some shifts over the last few days — originally we planned on staying high and dry and then a chance of thundershowers advanced on us.

Now, it’s downgraded to a chance for weak showers this evening, as the marginal mid-level instability that governed storm potential earlier in the week has moved north. The front half of the forecast involves a good deal of sunshine, which has been the primary thread running through the week.

With the large storm barrelling toward the eastern prairies, Calgary has opened a chance for thundershowers Friday evening, as instability will emerge in the storm’s wake. The chance of a storm is minimal; the chance of showers is far better.

Special weather statements (in grey) for this storm call for 20-40 millimetres of rain and in the warning zones, 30-50 mm is expected.

Portions of B.C. are also facing weather statements, as a helping of snow is expected in higher elevations there. Something to consider if you have travel plans.

Beyond, the forecast for Calgary cycles into a warming pattern. Friday offers a slight dip, but the weekend is more than prepared to make up for it. We’ll fall under a ridge of high pressure Sunday, with the outlook still peeking at showers in the midweek forecast ahead of the May long weekend.

Your five-day forecast:

Thursday

• Some cloud, low 1 C

Friday

• Mainly cloudy, windy (50 km/h gusts), chance of showers, small thundershower risk
• Daytime high: 15 C
• Evening: some cloud, low 4 C

Saturday

• Mainly cloudy
• Daytime high: 16 C
• Evening: mainly clear, low 1 C

Sunday

• Mainly sunny
• Daytime high: 20 C
• Evening: some cloud, low 7 C

Monday

• Partly cloudy, P.M. shower risk
• Daytime high: 21 C
• Evening: mainly cloudy, scattered showers, low 8 C

Tuesday

• Cloudy, showers
• Daytime high: 15 C
• Evening: mainly cloudy, low 3 C

Today’s pic is from Niel, who sent it in sideways with the comment "Glenmore Reservoir – upside right or upside down?" Cheeky, sir.

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