UCP holds narrow lead with upcoming election set to be political horserace: ThinkHQ
A new political poll crafted by ThinkHQ Public Affairs says if an election were held in Alberta today, voters would be split on who should form the next government.
In its findings, ThinkHQ found 48 per cent of those surveyed support Premier Danielle Smith and the United Conservative Party while 45 per cent support Rachel Notley’s New Democrats.
“The next provincial election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in Alberta’s history,” said Marc Henry, president of ThinkHQ.
“As it sits today, the NDP can capture 20 seats out of Edmonton without breaking a sweat, and the UCP can say the same for most of the constituencies outside of the two biggest cities.”
The poll shows Calgary will be the battleground, with Henry saying that will be where the election is won or lost.
Twenty-six seats are up for grabs, 29 if you include those outside the Calgary metropolitan area.
The premier’s office says the UCP are focused on “keeping life affordable, health care delivery, job creation and economic diversification and ensuring Albertans feel safe in their communities.”
“For months, United Conservative MLAs have been meeting with constituents to discuss their priorities and those messages have been heard loud and clear,” said spokesperson Taylor Hides.
Alberta NDP health critic David Shepherd says Calgary is where the NDP needs to make ground in the election.
“We have teachers, folks that have been working on the frontlines of the health care system, folks with deep expertise in the health care system, folks with deep expertise in energy, renewable energy and folks that have worked on building the economy,” said Shepherd.
“We are proud of the team that we’ve had, and know that all those folks are out there every day knocking on doors, talking to Calgarians, because that is where this will be decided.”
Henry says there will be a majority mandate because this is a two-party race.
“The two parties are very evenly matched,” said Henry.
“The UCP has recovered quite a bit of ground with Danielle Smith as the UCP leader, most of it at the expense of the Wildrose party.”
Henry adds that four out of 10 voters don’t like any of the alternatives and are not enthusiastic about going to the polls.
The poll found that more women are inclined to vote for the NDP than the UCP, while more men would cast a ballot for the conservatives.
In Calgary, 45 per cent of respondents support the NDP while 47 per cent support the UCP.
In Edmonton, 58 per cent of respondents would cast a ballot for Notley, only 36 per cent for Smith.
But the UCP had much bigger margins in north, central and southern Alberta, at more than 50 per cent support.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
1,144 people were surveyed from across the province.
Alberta’s general election is May 29th.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
LIVE UPDATES | Watch live coverage of U.S. President Joe Biden's trip to Canada
As Joe Biden makes his first trip to Canada as president of the United States, CTVNews.ca is offering live coverage of the leader's visit. Follow our live blog on CTVNews.ca and the CTV News app for the latest updates.

WATCH LIVE | 'A lot to talk about,' Biden says in meeting with Trudeau, will soon address Parliament
U.S. President Joe Biden arrived on Parliament Hill saying that he and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "have a lot to talk about," but that it's great to be in Canada.
Eugene Levy, Sarah Polley, Jean Chretien, the two Michaels among guests at Biden gala dinner
Notable people will be in attendance at Friday’s gala dinner with U.S. President Joe Biden, hosted by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife at the Canadian Aviation and Space Museum, including former prime ministers and celebrities.
Ontario crypto king kidnapped, tortured in an attempt to get millions in ransom, documents say
Ontario’s self-described crypto king was allegedly abducted, tortured, and beaten for days as his kidnappers looked to solicit millions in ransom, his father told a court in December.
Incredible photos show northern lights dancing across much of Canada
Sky-gazers and shutterbugs across much of Canada were treated to a spectacular display of northern lights Thursday night and into Friday morning.
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau introduces Jill Biden to curling during Ottawa visit
The United States' first lady was given a sweeping introduction to Canadian sports culture in Ottawa today as Sophie Gregoire Trudeau took Jill Biden to the curling rink.
W5 Investigates | 'Canadians should be very concerned about their drinking water': W5 investigates asbestos cement pipes
W5 investigates aging asbestos pipes across Canada and the potential health hazards if it ends up in your tap water. Watch W5's 'Something in the Water' Saturday at 7 p.m. on CTV.
Airbnb to pull listings that don't have proper permits in Quebec
Short-term rental company Airbnb says it will pull listings that don't have a proper permit from the Quebec government. The San Francisco-based company made the announcement eight days after a fatal fire destroyed an Old Montreal building that housed illegal rentals.
W5 EXCLUSIVE | New police force should be appointed to take over investigation into death of teenaged hockey player, complaint says
An Ontario couple has filed a request with the Office of the Independent Police Review Director (OIPRD) to appoint a new police force to investigate the death of their 17-year-old son Benjamin, who died during a hockey team-bonding event in September 2019.