Warm and sunny in Calgary ahead of the Polar Vortex

We're getting a clearer look at the updated forecast model data – every day, the image gets sharper, from its blurry starting-place last week to where we are now.

Speaking of last week, I held onto a screenshot I captured from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) on Jan. 19 that can track out as far as a month. So this is what the CFS thought Feb. 20 would look like as of last Thursday (note: 24 degrees Fahrenheit is around -4 C):

Climate Forecast System forecast for Feb. 20 in Calgary as of Jan. 19.

Here's that same datapoint (Feb. 20) using the model’s latest run.

Climate Forecast System forecast for Feb. 20 in Calgary as of Jan. 23.

This is not one of those "try to spot the differences" pictures. That part's obvious (note: -20 degrees Fahrenheit is around -30 C).

The lead-up still has a few days around -10 C, but, once we get past that, we're not going to sit anywhere remotely close to normal for a good while.

We're still very much in a La Nina cycle, for which temperatures hitting the negatives hard is not atypical in February; February 2021 averaged out to around -6.3 C, featuring a cycle that included a high temperature at -26 C.

And finally, our forecast for the next couple of days. Enjoy them. Please. Lots of sun and highs above zero are ahead.

They'll be the last ones we see for a while.

YOUR FIVE-DAY CALGARY FORECAST

Tuesday

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high: 3 C
• Evening: mainly cloudy, low -6 C

Wednesday

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high: 2 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -4 C

Thursday

• PM rain becoming snow showers
• Daytime high: 6 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -2 C

Friday

• Flurries
• Daytime high: -2 C
• Evening: flurries, low -19 C

Saturday

• Cloudy, flurries
• Daytime high: -16 C
• Evening: flurries, low -20 C

Patrice is a gem for sending such great birding photos along; she always labels them, too, for us non-birders. Here's Friday's – a northern hawk owl!

Northern hawk owl photo courtesy viewer Patrice.

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