Poll suggests Canadians worry about U.S. relationship as Liberals choose a new leader

Canadian and U.S. flags fly atop the Peace Arch monument at the Douglas-Peace Arch border crossing in Surrey, B.C., on Monday, November 8, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck (DARRYL DYCK/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

OTTAWA — A new poll suggests most Canadians are concerned about the federal government’s ability to handle Canada-U.S. relations while the Liberals choose their next leader — and that many Liberal supporters would prefer former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney to be that leader.

Polling firm Leger surveyed 1,545 people over the weekend, asking a range of questions about who should replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, how Canadians are feeling about the transition and the timing of the next election.

In all, 78 per cent of respondents said they were concerned about the government’s ability to manage the relationship with the incoming administration of Donald Trump.

Trump has vowed to impose 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada when he takes office on Jan. 20.

When he first made the tariff threat, Trump said it was in response to what he called Canada’s inaction on drugs and migrants crossing the shared border. The federal government subsequently laid out a $1.3-billion plan to beef up border security.

The federal cabinet is set to hold a two-day retreat, starting on inauguration day, to discuss measures to “protect and defend Canadian interests,” the Prime Minister’s Office said Tuesday.

The Leger poll also asked questions about who should take over when the Liberals choose their next leader on March 9.

Carney had the support of 27 per cent of Liberal voters polled, while former finance minister Chrystia Freeland was second among Liberals with 21 per cent. Former B.C. premier Christy Clark was a distant third at six per cent.

Clark ruled out a run for the leadership on Tuesday.

When Leger asked the same question of all the poll’s respondents, Carney and Freeland were almost tied, with Freeland one point ahead at 14 per cent.

Carney and Freeland have not yet entered the race officially. Both are expected to make announcements within the next week.

Government House leader Karina Gould also plans to launch her campaign later this week, according to a Liberal source. The Leger poll put her support among both Liberals and all respondents at one per cent.

Chandra Arya, who was the first MP to officially announce a bid for the leadership, also received one per cent of overall support and three per cent support from Liberals.

Three other individuals Leger polled as possible replacements for Trudeau — cabinet ministers Anita Anand, Steve MacKinnon and François-Philippe Champagne — have decided in recent days not to enter the race.

Most of those polled — 46 per cent overall, and 30 per cent of Liberal voters — said they don’t know who the party’s next leader should be. Fourteen per cent of respondents selected “someone else” as their preferred option.

Respondents were almost evenly split on when they think Canadians should head to the polls.

About a third of those surveyed, 32 per cent, said the next election should be in October — the date set out in the fixed election law — while 30 per cent said it should be held this spring and 29 per cent said a vote should happen now.

Support for an immediate election was highest among supporters of the Conservative party. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been loudly demanding for months that the Liberals call what he’s described as a “carbon-tax election,” and has ramped up those calls since Trudeau announced his plans to step down last week.

Most of the Liberal voters surveyed said they want to see the election happen in the fall, as did most NDP supporters.

People who plan to vote for the Bloc Québécois were more likely to say they want an election in the spring.

Trudeau has prorogued Parliament, putting the House of Commons on pause until March 24.

With all opposition parties lining up to topple Trudeau’s minority government with a non-confidence vote after that date, a spring election appears increasingly likely.

The poll does not include a margin of error because online surveys are not considered truly random samples.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 14, 2025.

Sarah Ritchie, The Canadian Press