Alberta analysts closely watching 'drastic' oil slump
Alberta is closely watching the energy market as oil prices slip to lows not seen since December 2021 and turmoil continues to rattle the global banking sector.
Political watchers also say the province's prosperity is tightly connected to energy prices, any signs of a weakening economy could affect the election.
The benchmark commodities for crude oil were trading low as of Thursday afternoon, with West Texas Intermediate at US$68 a barrel and Western Canadian Select at US$52 a barrel.
The Government of Alberta's Budget 2023 has projections for 2023/24 at $79 and $78 respectively.
"If you look at oil prices here in the last week, it's pretty drastic how much they've fallen off, but I would say this is almost a bit of the new reality that we have going forward here," said Jeremy McCrea, managing director of energy research at Raymond James.
The recent closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the U.S. are causing ripple effects through the market.
Markets also saw a pronounced turnaround from Zurich-based Credit Suisse as shares surged Thursday after the Swiss central bank agreed to loan Credit Suisse up to 50 billion francs (US$54 billion) shortly after the lender reported weaknesses, prompting concerns about a potential global economic slowdown.
However, McCrea said the banking crisis is affecting markets as a whole with "near-term movements."
"The complexity of the oil market is so large, I don't think anybody can really pinpoint one item or not in terms of where the prices are really going to go here," before adding that the commodity market is more closely linked to supply issues from producers and demand from consumers.
As to whether these events will continue to hit crude oil particularly hard, another analyst says recent successes will cushion any blows.
Raoul Leblanc, North America energy market analyst for S&P Global insights, says Alberta energy companies use the rally of 2022 to put themselves in a good position.
"They were smart with the money – they didn't go and waste the money, didn't go spend the money, they paid down debt … In other words, they used the good times to prepare for a bad time," said Leblanc.
However, he points out that current oil prices don't signal a "bad time."
"Could it go lower? Absolutely it could go lower," he said.
ECONOMIC TIES
Charles St. Arnaud, the chief economist at Alberta Central, the trade association for the credit unions of Alberta, says 10 per cent of the province's GDP is driven by energy.
"It's a big wealth generator. We saw it in 2022. When oil prices skyrocketed in, in the first half of the year," he said before adding, "That's actually what's led to our big surplus, fiscal surplus last year."
St. Arnaud said this may be a marginal negative moment in the energy market, but he doesn't expect it will last long.
"W need to be careful not to look at the recent few days and extrapolate that that's what we'll be seeing for the rest of the year."
UNRELIABLE REVENUE
However political watchers say if the tides don't turn quickly, it could present challenges for the current UCP government for the upcoming provincial election.
"A dip in oil prices reminds Albertans of the unreliability of those revenues, whether it be royalty revenues or tax revenues," said Lori Williams, political science professor at Mount Royal University.
She says if oil prices and therefore provincial revenues were to fall further, the money to pay for the programs that current government has proposed in its budget could be in jeopardy.
"A lot of people will be wondering what's going to happen after the next election? Will these prosperity checks continue to come in to Albertans?
Williams adds that conservative government's typically have an edge or advantage from a traditional view of good fiscal management, should the economy become an election issue when voters head to the polls on May 29.
CTV News has also reached out to the Alberta's Minister of Treasury Board and Finance to respond to the oil market and its effect on the province, but did not hear back before publication.
- With files from The Associated Press and Bloomberg
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Inflation is down, wages are up. Why are Canadians still frustrated with the economy?
The federal finance minister has been taking every opportunity to remind frustrated Canadians that after a bumpy pandemic recovery, the nation's economy is actually doing a lot better.
'It looks quite real': Two Ontarians lose money to fake phone scam
About 85 per cent of Canadians have a smartphone and once you have one they’re hard to live without. The latest smartphones can cost as much as $2,000, so if you’re trying to save money, make sure you don’t get caught in a fake smartphone scam.
America reaches Election Day and a stark choice between Trump and Harris
A presidential campaign marked by upheaval and rancor approached its finale on Election Day as Americans decided whether to send Donald Trump back to the White House or elevate Kamala Harris to the Oval Office.
New homeowners find skeleton in attic 15 years after previous occupant disappeared
Homeowners in France have discovered a skeleton in the attic of an outbuilding while undertaking renovation work.
B.C. ports shuttered as lockout takes hold in latest labour dispute
One of Canada's most vital trade arteries is cut off as employers at most of British Columbia's ports lock out their workers in a dispute involving about 700 unionized foremen.
Months after VRBO booking, Taylor Swift fan told home 'not available' during Vancouver concert
A frustrated Taylor Swift fan is speaking out after being pushed from a short-term rental she booked for the upcoming Vancouver leg of the superstar’s Eras Tour.
Dutch police arrest a suspect in a botched art heist of Andy Warhol screenprints
Police arrested a 23-year-old man Tuesday on suspicion of involvement in a botched art heist at a gallery in the southern Netherlands targeting four valuable Andy Warhol screenprints.
Trudeau and Harris? Poilievre and Trump? Here's who Canadians think would work best with: survey
As Americans prepare to elect their next president on Tuesday, new data from the Angus Reid Institute suggests Canadians hold differing views as to which federal party leaders would be best suited to deal with either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Australian foreign minister raises allegations with Indian counterpart of targeting Sikhs in Canada
Australia's foreign minister said Tuesday she raised allegations with her Indian counterpart that India has targeted Sikh activists in Canada.