Calgary to remain a seller's market in 2024 as demand continues to outpace supply: CREB

Calgary's housing market conditions are expected to loosen this year, but sellers will likely remain in control, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board's (CREB) annual forecast.

"We have seen some extreme seller market conditions, so I expect to see us kind of move away from those extreme conditions but we're far from that balance point," said the CREB's chief economist, Ann-Marie Lurie.

The CREB says Calgary's home sales, new listings, inventory and supply were all down last year, while the benchmark price of a home rose to $556,975.

"Some of the challenges that we saw throughout 2023 are related directly to the rising cost of living, rising interest rates and the lack of inventory of homes," said Christian Twomey, real estate agent and CREB chair.

The board expects the benchmark home price to jump 6.5 per cent in 2024 as inter-provincial migration, listings and labour market trends further drive demand.

"What is going to continue to be a challenge is the supply coming onto the market and that's why we do expect to see further price growth in 2024," Lurie said.

"I expect that that lower end of the market is still going to be very tight, especially if you're looking for a detached home."

The CREB says migration is expected to slow in 2024 "but remain robust enough to sustain relatively strong sales in our market."

The report predicts residential sales to hit almost 28,000 this year, which is slightly up from last year's actual sales of 27,416.

It adds that the housing crunch has led to a significant increase in new home and apartment builds in 2023, particularly rental buildings.

"Limited supply choice in the resale and rental markets supported stronger home starts activity in 2023. In the Calgary census metropolitan area, 2023 housing starts are on pace to hit record levels," the report said.

Lurie says it'll still take time for that impact to be felt.

"Are we going to see enough of that new home activity? Is it going to be completed soon enough relative to that migration to actually start adding and making a difference in supply?"

Sasha Tsenkova, a planning professor at the University of Calgary, says several factors need to be considered with new builds.

"We need to think about where that new supply goes because it's going to continue to shape neighbourhoods and places, and the livelihoods of many people will depend on that," she said.

"Whatever we build today has to be done in a thoughtful way, addressing issues of affordability, of social mix, of social inclusion."

The CREB predicts rental demand will also remain high this year as population growth continues to affect Calgary's housing market.

"We need to see government finance, affordable housing as well as rent caps to alleviate the problem on lower-income renters and people renting in general right now because for the upcoming year, it doesn't look like it's going to improve much or at all," said Keegan Colwell, ACORN Calgary northwest chapter chair.

Calgary compared to Edmonton

The housing market remains much tighter in Calgary compared to Edmonton, according to the CREB.

"Calgary is perceived to be drawing a larger share of inter-provincial migration, supporting some of the sales growth in the higher-priced market segments while simultaneously exerting pressure on supply," the report said.

The CREB says limited supply in relation to demand contributed to Calgary's nearly six per cent benchmark price increase of $556,975 in 2023.

Edmonton, on the other hand, started the year with higher supply levels that lasted throughout the spring, contributing to Edmonton's nearly five per cent drop in the benchmark price to $368,350 last year.

The CREB expects price growth in Calgary will still outpace growth in Edmonton in 2024.