Calgary wakes up to wind chill values of -44, and it is only getting colder

As expected the entire province of Alberta was placed under an extreme cold warning Thursday as temperatures hit -28 C with wind chill values making it feel like -44.

Environment and Climate Change Canada noted, “Air temperatures will continue to gradually fall through the end of the week with the coldest values expected by Saturday morning.”

At times, wind chill values in the province will sit at -50. A wind chill value between -48 and -54 poses a “severe risk” for hypothermia and/or frostbite, and exposed skin can freeze in just two to five minutes.

Weather warnings issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada as of 8 a.m. Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024. Extreme cold warnings (teal), snowfall warnings (white), and wind warnings (light purple).

Calgary started Thursday under a “very high risk” related to wind chill - meaning exposure to the elements should be limited, as unprotected skin can freeze in five to 10 min.

By Friday morning, wind chill values in southern Alberta will elevate that risk even further, as wind chill values could reach -48 for the city.

Those coldest temperatures and wind chill values over the weekend coincide with the polar vortex elongating through Alberta and dipping close to the U.S. border.

Clear skies will amplify this effect as cloud cover can serve as an insulating layer trapping outgoing longwave radiation (heat) closer to the surface.

Extended cold spells of this magnitude are rare in Alberta. According to the public records from ECCC, the last time Calgary remained below -30 C for an entire day was nearly 20 years ago, on Jan. 27, 2004.

Records are likely to be broken with this cold weather, but not necessarily in Calgary. The overnight temperatures this weekend are expected to remain above -40 C, and the record low both Jan. 12 and 13 is -42.2 C.

A warm up is expected by Monday, however there is low confidence in a full recover, at least initially. Calgary is unlikely to achieve a seasonal daytime high over the next seven days and will only crest the average overnight low for two days.