Cautious optimism? Alberta energy sector prepping for a turbulent 2025

Energy sector leaders say they're happy with how 2024 went but fear the stretch of good fortune could end in 2025.

The Canadian Association of Energy Contractors hosted its annual State of the Industry event in Calgary on Friday.

President Mark Scholz says it was a great year.

"We are seeing some of the highest total jobs created in our sector in nearly 10 years," he said.

"More jobs, more paychecks, more rigs."

Demand for the product is strong, and market access is slowly improving thanks to two massive Canadian projects.

Global conflicts haven't hurt, either.

"These events give the whole world a wake-up call on the importance of secure, reliable energy suppliers," Premier Danielle Smith said as an event speaker.

"Canada should be on the other end of that line."

But in 2025, that might be easier said than done.

Promised 25 per cent tariffs from U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump have the potential to really hurt the industry.

And most event attendees on Friday are still upset about an incoming Canadian federal emissions cap.

It's sparked an Alberta Sovereignty Act motion that some experts insist is further undermining business confidence.

Commodity analyst Kevin Birn tells CTV News it could make for a dicey few months.

"The longer-term issues—the uncertainty being driven by policy and the uncertainty being driven by trade and trade relationships—are certainly weighing on that overall prospect and the degree of investment," he said.

"Ultimately, both these things increase the uncertainty in the sector as a whole and into the economy in terms of tariffs, which can have a slowing effect and hesitation around investment."

Alberta's government places all the blame on Ottawa.

"Unfortunately, we've been put in this position by a federal government who has refused to listen to provinces and industry on what makes sense for our country," Environment Minister Rebecca Schulz said.

Schulz and Smith both mentioned Friday there is limited communication with Ottawa on the emissions cap, which hasn't instilled optimism.

And on the tariffs front, the premier says she and her cabinet have been reaching out to American contacts to make the case that energy should be exempt from the extra tax.