Groundhog or Groundhog-wash? Canada's prognosticating rodents, lobster give mixed predictions

Thursday marked the one day a year when groundhogs with alliterative names get their 15 minutes of fame and humans wait with baited breath on their spring predictions.

The most famous furry forecasters here in Canada are Ontario's Wiarton Willie, Nova Scotia's Shubenacadie Sam and Quebec's Fred la Marmotte.

The trio all reportedly did not see their shadows on Friday morning, which according to centuries-old folklore indicates an early spring.

However, in western Canada, Alberta's Balzac Billy (a person in a groundhog costume) and Manitoba Merv (a rodent finger puppet) are both predicting six more weeks of winter.

Lucy the Lobster in Nova Scotia is also forecasting a longer winter in 2024.

Lucy the Lobster from Barrington, N.S. (X/@LJB_OceanSide)So how seriously should we take these predictions? 

David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, says with the tiniest grain of salt

"It's sort of where science fiction meets science," Phillips said. "It's kind of cute and it's harmless, I think, and a bit of a hoax."

Yet Canadians and Americans can't seem to get enough of the day, so much so that Phillips has dived into the history behind Groundhog Day.

Shubenacadie Sam peers out of her burrow before predicting an early spring during a Groundhog Day event at the Shubenacadie Wildlife Park in Nova Scotia on Friday, Feb.2, 2024. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ted Pritchard)In an article he co-wrote for the Canadian Encyclopedia, Phillips explains the origins of Groundhog Day date back to Medieval Europe.

According to European beliefs, the awakening of hibernating animals like bears, otters and hedgehogs in early February was an indication of spring's arrival. 

European settlers continued this belief when they came to North America and used the marmot to predict the forecast.

"But the problem is this, Europe is a much milder climate so it's quite likely on Feb. 2 the groundhog would be stirring and coming out, but in North America and Canada, the (groundhog's) burrow is covered in snow and he has to be coaxed out of it."

Manitoba Merv appears wearing a construction vest, tool belt and hard hat, and saw his shadow on Groundhog Day, meaning six more weeks of winter for the province. (Image source: Scott Andersson/CTV News Winnipeg)While Feb. 2 plagues skilled meteorologists across the continent, Phillips can appreciate that a little levity and silliness can go a long way during the longest season of the year.

"I know in Wiarton, near where I live, my gosh, they have bonspiels, arts and crafts festivals and make over $1 million a year in that little town all because of Wiarton Willie, so they keep this alive because its good for them."

Wiarton Mayor Jay Kirkland announces an early spring with Wiarton Willie during a Groundhog Day event in Wiarton, Ont. on Friday, Feb.2, 2024. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Doug Ball)When it comes to the forecast over the next couple of months, Phillips is predicting winter is not done with Canada yet, but says cold arctic air shouldn't attack Alberta as aggressively as it did in January.

"Generally when the cold comes back after this time, it's usually not as intensely cold, it also doesn't last as long so there is some hope we are starting to see winter wind down but it's not over."