New Year's offers a 'toasty' start in Calgary, but falls quickly

UPDATE: I feel like I jinxed it. Like, there's five minutes left in the third period of a hockey game and a parent shouts out "Wow, she's going to get a shutout!" 

You don't say it. You just don't.

And here I am, writing for Calgary this morning: "Environment Canada’s call for this evening’s wind chill is -38. I’m with ‘em… or within a degree of them. So, it’s not an extreme cold warning. But my word, is it ever close."

Yeah. It was. And now we're back under an Extreme Cold Warning.

Quite a few spots experienced a surge in overnight wind chill potential. Calgary, according to the Hourly Forecast from EnvCan, does indeed stay under -40, but now it's by a single degree. So at that point, do you split the difference? Probably not. Environment Canada made the right call. Even if my Twitter is inundated with stuff like this, now:

 

 

I understand. Really, was anyone going to say "cool, time to take advantage of that -38 wind chill" anyhow? Probably not. Still, these warnings are another eye-rollingly good reminder to spend some time indoors.

The bright side: I have NO change-ups to the weekend forecast on offer. We'll take that as we can.

 

A small impulse is driving those near-weightless flakes down Thursday morning – if they end up amounting to a full centimetre, it certainly won’t feel like it on the shovel (or the broom).

Calgary left the warnings for extreme cold behind Wednesday afternoon, but there’s a strong chance to see a resurgence next week.

I’ll dive into that in a second. First, it’s important to note this page here.

For the sake of saving you a click (but it’s a fun reference, if time allows), that’s Environment Canada’s Warning Criteria page. Extreme cold warnings exist in the event of a -40 wind chill. Calgary and portions of the foothills all the way up into central Alberta are no longer at risk of a -40 wind chill. That really is all it means.

Environment Canada’s call for this evening’s wind chill is -38. I’m with ‘em… or within a degree of them. So, it’s not an extreme cold warning. But my word, is it ever close.

The Pacific low setup remains a solid “go” as we get to Saturday; west wind gusts in Calgary are looking to reach the 40 km/h marker, and for the southwest corridor of our province, 80 km/h through this time. We’ll see our province’s “hot spot” hit a positive marker. Even Calgary proper may end up above zero, if briefly. I’m not yet confident in that, for sure, but I’m not dismissive of it, either.

This will make for fair conditions through the weekend, but the jet stream will continue entering North America near Northern California and ripping across the southern U.S. Midwest. That means cold air isn’t far off again. Longer-range forecasts for the Calgary area show signs of improvement by the 9th or 10th of this month. Another week in the chill lies just ahead.

Your five-day forecast:

Tonight

• Clear, low -29 C

Friday

• New Year's Eve - Mainly sunny
• Daytime high: -20 C
• Evening: mainly clear, low -23 C

Saturday

• New Year's Day - Mainly sunny
• Daytime high: -4 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -9 C

Sunday

• Partly cloudy, late-day cold front
• Daytime high: 0 C
• Evening: snow, low -18 C

Monday

• AM flurries, then partly cloudy
• Daytime high: -19 C
• Evening: overnight flurries, low -25 C

Tuesday

• AM flurries, then partly cloudy
• Daytime high: -21 C
• Evening: overnight flurries, low -27 C

Our pic today is from Mike in Canmore, showing off a rather lovely winter scene, complete with a touch of radiation fog.

You can submit your photos here, email me here, or tweet them over.