A hiccup in Calgary's warm trend set to arrive Thursday

UPDATE: Well, how about that. We popped up to 13! There's little chance Calgary keeps the ball rolling this afternoon, with temperature trends predicting a slight fold-back as we round the 4 o'clock hour. Still, it's a warm one!

Moving beyond, the drop Thursday is now slated for a little earlier in the afternoon. By all accounts, model trends usually underestimate the speed of cold air masses moving through. Let's just say I wouldn't bank on a patio lunch tomorrow. Some models are calling for just flurries tomorrow evening, but I still see some potential for that flurry wave to start as rainshowers before transitioning. Models are calling for 1-2 cm, but ambient ground temperatures from the warm few days preceding will do their part to keep some of that snow at bay, especially on road surfaces.

Warm air continues to push in today for southern Alberta. Wind gusts are expected to enhance late today as we carry into Thursday, but they'll moderate today in the 40-50 km/h zone for Calgary.

With this, our temperature is paring back, slightly. The cloud layer will break, at times, but, similar to yesterday, it'll be a predominant feature on the day. We'll come close to breaking that 1926 14.4 C record high for this day in history, but by the end, it'll fall short. Overnight low temperatures being held up by the wind will be a fleeting element.

Tomorrow will be an interesting one. We likely reach our high temperature by noon, and begin our descent from there. The floor of this temperature trend is in the negatives Friday morning, with a shot at mixed precipitation around midnight – rain will transition into snow. Gusts from the north as part of this system will strike in the 60 km/h range.

Friday is a chillier day as a result – in spite of this, it'll still level as an 'above seasonal' day. We can expect improvements once again for the weekend, too, as west and high pressure come back with force.

For Valentine's Day, someone forgets to bring Mother Nature a bouquet of roses, and the cold shoulder begins anew.

YOUR FIVE-DAY FORECAST:

Tonight

• Evening: some cloud, low 7 C

Thursday

• Sunny, building cloud
• Daytime high: 13 C
• Evening: mixed precipitation, low -4 C

Friday

• Mainly sunny
• Daytime high: 1 C
• Evening: clear, low -8 C

Saturday

• Mainly sunny
• Daytime high: 6 C
• Evening: mainly clear, low -3 C

Sunday

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high: 8 C
• Evening: clear, low -1 C

Monday

• Mainly cloudy
• Daytime high: 9 C
• Evening: mainly cloudy, low -2 C

Our pic of the day today is from Richie Hannah – he took this yesterday morning, and I referred to it as "Desktop Background Quality" on our CTV News at 6 yesterday.

<Richie>

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