Alberta business leaders cautiously optimistic about impact of a Trump administration, tariffs

Donald Trump's return to the White House on Wednesday continues to spur speculation into how policies affecting the energy industry will shift under his leadership.

But Alberta business leaders are feeling cautiously optimistic.

"If there is a place in Canada to perhaps come out better in these kinds of reviews, it's perhaps Alberta," said Adam Legge, Business Council of Alberta president.

That's because Canada's largest export to the U.S. is energy.

In fact, ATB reports Alberta energy represented more than 80 per cent of U.S.-bound exports last year.

Trump has promised a blanket 10 to 20 per cent tariff on all imports, but experts say that would ultimately cost consumers on both sides of the border, leading many industry experts to believe Canadian oil and gas will be exempt.

"You're having smaller, more narrow refinery margins, and you have higher pump prices for Americans. That higher pump factor is why myself and others think it won't happen because of Trump's promise to reduce energy prices to consumers," said Rory Johnston, Commodity Context founder and University of Toronto global affairs professor.

Trump's America-first agenda wants to boost U.S. oil and gas production to lower energy costs, but experts say American refineries would still need Canada's heavier crude oil.

"The bigger issue, I do think, is the investments. A lot of oil and gas investments could go south, then stay domestically because our policies are rather antagonistic when it comes to oil and gas investments," said Kasha Piquette, former Alberta deputy minister of environment and protected areas.

Some would like to see the federal government re-evaluate its oil and gas sector emissions cap to better align with its southern neighbour's new incoming administration.

"Now is not the time. Well, frankly, it's never the time for the emissions cap, but particularly as we're sitting down to negotiate with a Trump administration, that cap should be scrapped," said Legge.

If blanket tariffs are imposed, it ultimately ends the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement.

But Alberta Premier Danielle Smith isn't opposed to a review and supports the idea of removing Mexico from the mix.

"If we take a Canada-first approach and we show Americans we're prepared to have a fair trade, where we buy as much from them as they buy from us, I think we'll be able to succeed in having a North American strategy," said Smith.

"That's what I'm pushing for, and I know that's what (Ontario Premier) Doug Ford is pushing for as well."

CTV News reached out to the federal government and the Trump administration for comment but did not hear back.