Alberta's NDP and UCP deadlocked as campaign officially begins: poll

A new poll suggests Alberta's UCP and NDP are locked in a dead heat as the political parties seek support in the upcoming provincial election.

The writ dropped Monday and Albertans head to the polls May 29, though both parties have been unofficially campaigning for weeks.

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A poll released by ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. on Tuesday indicates that if a provincial election were held today, 46 per cent of decided voters would vote for the NDP while another 46 per cent of decided voters would vote for the UCP.

The poll found 13 per cent of Alberta voters are undecided.

"This province-wide parity between the NDP and UCP has been a feature of our provincial tracking for over six months, with several regional variances also largely locked into place," ThinkHQ noted in a release.

According to the survey, the NDP hold a "sizeable" lead in the Edmonton census metropolitan area (CMA), with 57 per cent support from decided voters compared to 33 per cent supporting the UCP.A new poll from ThinkHQ suggests Alberta's UCP and NDP are locked in a dead-heat as the pair seek support in the upcoming provincial election. (ThinkHQ) Meanwhile, in the Calgary CMA, decided voters are virtually tied, with 47 per cent saying they'd vote NDP and 46 per cent saying they'd vote UCP.

Outside of the province's two largest cities, support for the UCP outranks the NDP; the survey suggests the UCP have support from at least 20 per cent more decided voters than the NDP in the north, central and south regions of the province.

"We know that the NDP are going to do well in Edmonton, likely even picking up a few seats in the surrounding region," said ThinkHQ president Marc Henry.

"Meanwhile, the UCP are going to win, by large margins, in many areas outside of the two largest cities.”

ThinkHQ noted in its release that Calgary will be the "real battleground" for the election.

"The UCP have a slightly easier path to victory than the NDP, but it’s really going to boil down to about a dozen toss-up and leaning ridings, many of which are in Calgary,” it said.

"This is going to be a very interesting election.”

ThinkHQ also noted "significant" gender and generational gaps in voter support in Alberta, saying women and younger voters showed a "distinct preference" for the NDP, while men and those over the age of 55 offered a similar inclination toward the UCP.

The report from ThinkHQ was compiled through an online survey of 1,529 random adult Albertans through Angus Reid between April 25 and 29. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.