Calgary weather: A better look at tomorrow's snow

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Welp, here we go! The forecast models across a few platforms tell vastly different stories about the happenings tomorrow afternoon. Since we pushed the clocks up eight hours, very little has changed in that regard!

The expectation is that a new low-pressure centre is coming in off the Rockies tomorrow. It'll plant itself over Calgary, with the centre-point +/- 100 km from being directly over the downtown core. As it drags as much moisture into itself as possible, central Alberta and the mountain communities are looking at snowfall-warning-levels of the white stuff - which happens when 10 cm or more of snow falls within 12 hours or less.

Calgary's not out of the woods on one of those, either. 

Why the trickery? Why can't every forecast model just get along?

Blame the mountains.

Because we don't - and, frankly, can't - have a complete lock on exactly where the low will form, the challenge becomes an educated guess on which pattern gets to us, and what that means. Most forecast models show a zone of convergence along the northwestern base of the low along the Peace Valley; that's where a consistently heavier base of snow will fall. The image below has an arrow pointed to Calgary, showing that we stand a chance along that heavier precipice - this model run is tomorrow at noon. 

This is to say that Airdrie stands an even greater chance of getting hit by the bigger burst of winter.

One potential spot this low could land

Still, there's the other side of this coin to consider; if this band populates further north, Calgary gets a full-on grazing and ends up with a negligible total with some rain mixed in. There remains a very strong chance we see that result, and I don't want to dismiss it! Still, those snow shovels may need to come back out if the heaviest happens. 

 My lean right now, if my chips MUST be down, is at the ~8 cm marker, which includes a shot at rainshowers mixed in. Regardless, this is a state where 8-12 cm will be the forecast note tonight.

Thursday's forecast brought about a high pressure ridge that was slated to work up toward us.

That's not a thing beyond today, any longer.

Today, gusts will enter the 40 km/h range and pile in the warmest day we've seen in a while. Tuesday, however, takes a turn; a large low is rolling off of the Rockies at us. Wind will turn from the northwest and up to 10 centimetres is possible in the Peace Region.

In Calgary, there are two scenarios: rainfall potential (around four millimetres) thanks to marginally-dryer westerlies as part of this setup, helping our high hit 5 C; or, a high of around 2 C and over five centimetres of snow, all within a couple hours of noon. A dryer period will offer reprieve for the commute home, but another couple of centimetres is possible overnight.

I'm leaning into scenario A at this point – I don't think the cooler air mass develops at such an extreme level. I'll have a better idea when the models update through the noon hour – it’s a big split, right now!

I feel it's been said before, but here we go again – after that, things look to steady themselves. Here’s hoping it's right this time. We'll experience middling cloud and temperatures should return to the double digits again just in time for Earth Day on Friday.

YOUR FIVE-DAY CALGARY FORECAST

Tonight

• Scattered flurries, low -5 C

Tuesday

• Rain/snow (8-12 cm), wind gusts NW 50 km/h
• Daytime high: 4 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -2 C

Wednesday

• AM snow clearing
• Daytime high: 4 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -5 C

Thursday

• Chance for AM scattered flurries
• Daytime high: 6 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -2 C

Friday

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high: 9 C
• Evening: overnight scattered showers, low -1 C

Saturday

• Mainly cloudy, scattered showers
• Daytime high: 11 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -1 C

Today's pic was sent by Charlie of Mt Townsend. Great shot!

Viewer Charlie's photo of Mount Townshend.

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