Independent modelling suggests imminent spike in Alberta COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations

CALGARY -

COVID-19 modelling projections recently presented to the provincial government suggest Alberta will soon bear the brunt of a massive fourth wave.

According to the report conducted by a group of public health researchers, primarily based at universities throughout British Columbia, Alberta is slated to see staggering increases in COVID-19 case counts, hospital admissions and demand on intensive care units.

The research suggests COVID-19 will not be suppressed in the province until 90 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated and the projections were created without consideration for the province's current plans to reduce testing and halt contact tracing.

The projections include daily case counts of upward of 15,000 in Alberta during the fourth wave, with the vast majority being unvaccinated.

"The relationship between cases and hospitalizations has not been substantially changed by the vaccination program, in part because most infections are in unvaccinated people, and because the VOC [variants of concern] cause severe COVID-19 disease," the report concludes.

It also calls on the government to keep on testing for COVID-19. "Continuing testing will help give advance warning of increasing demand on hospitals."

The report, which was presented to government officials on Aug. 6, appears below in its entirety. The research group says it will provided updated data later Friday.

COVID-19 Model Projections for Alberta by CTV Calgary on Scribd