Wet, cold and snowy start to the week prompts weather warnings/statements

A low complex (multiple low-pressure systems) across the western Prairies and B.C. will create some challenging conditions over the next few days.

Southern Alberta will be impacted by multiple upsloping events, with the first hitting Monday afternoon and evening.

A colder air mass from the north will clash with a moisture-laden system from the Pacific producing heavy accumulations of precipitation.

These types of scenarios with systems that have counter-clockwise rotation and move over the mountains and across southern Alberta are very difficult to forecast with precision.

As such models calculating the location of the heaviest accumulations and the type of precipitation vary significantly, even from run-to-run using the same parameters and programs.

Rain will precede snow in most areas in the province as warmer atmospheric temperatures persist on Monday. The daytime highs in southern Alberta on Monday are expected to be in the low-double digits.

Temperatures will steadily decline as the week goes on with the daytime highs in Calgary expected to hit 3 C by Wednesday, which is 14 degrees below seasonal.

Overnight temperatures will remain closer to seasonal as the window between highs and lows narrows throughout the week.

It is likely that the heaviest amounts of snow on Monday and Tuesday will be west of Calgary as a low pressure system riding the southern border is expected to track east throughout the week, but again, confidence is low.

Initial snowfall is expected to melt off of roadways as surface temperatures remain elevated, but if snowfall rates are intense and/or winds are strong, (most likely to occur at higher elevations) that snow could pile up and impact traction.

Once snow does start to accumulate there is the potential for areas to rapidly add to that total. Some models are suggesting snowfall amounts of 20 to 30 centimetres are possible in the Rockies in less than a day.

Hail is possible in the foothills and portions of the Rockies Monday due to the convective potential at the beginning of this event.

A second round of snow will impact the region late Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Normal diurnal cycles will dictate that this precipitation should coincide with the coldest times of the day, so a rain/snow mix or snow will be most probable as the week goes on.