The precipitation stays snowy in Calgary

UPDATE: Well THAT forecast stood better Monday than it did this morning. As of 1 p.m., High River sits at our forecast high of six. Okotoks is at four, and the Calgary Airport ... is at zero. The modeling put Calgary in that warmer bubble this morning, but it's fallen, and with it, this layer of snow has pressed down hard on us, instead. Last night on CTV, and in yesterday's article, I leaned toward 8-12 cm; that looks far more likely now than the morning forecast below. 

It's a learning moment for me. Potential was always there, and now we're in it. 

Here's our 24-hour precipitation accumulation. I drew that black line to show where our temperature rises to this becoming rainfall. The important note is that this is precipitable water; that means between four and eight millimetres of snow have fallen in Calgary (likely closer to six), but, as snow and with a portion of ice attached, that can indeed make for eight cm, though ground temperatures and ambient air temperatures around Calgary haven't allowed that to stick around, since a lot of this wet stuff was about ready to melt in the first place.

Beyond, I've adjusted our temperature trend accordingly. Nothing overly different to report; overnight snow showers are possible, and since a lot of forecast models were calling for Calgary to be nearer to 4 C by now, a lot of them probably overestimated our temperature trend. More snow will fall this evening and into tomorrow morning, but sunshine and warmer days are ahead.

It's cliché, but the sentiment of "never say never" applies to this last gasp of winter – the basis of which applies to the longest-range forecast models at my disposal, which show a steady stream of days ahead that are at least within a few degrees of seasonal. Our seasonal high right now is nearly 12 C.

This is all to say we don't have much left to endure before the warm-up begins again.

The evening forecasts had some wild disparity last night; some forecast models predicted as high as 18 centimetres for the Calgary area. Every new update since – and I mean every – has painted a much more muted picture for Calgary. Most suggest that even two centimetres will be tough to match, as the temperature at the base of the cloud has risen more effectively with our surface temperatures.

As the temperature profile in our lower atmosphere goes up, our chance for this precipitation to fall as snow goes down.

By the end of the day, it's doubtful much of this will stick around in Calgary.

Afterward, we’re looking at flurries into Wednesday morning that have a marginally better chance of clinging to grass, if briefly; we're staying in the positives on the high end throughout the next few milder days, after all! The weekend conditions ahead will be more than this layer of snow can handle.

YOUR FIVE-DAY CALGARY FORECAST

Tonight

• Evening: snow showers continue, low -4 C

Wednesday

• A.M. snow clearing, partly cloudy
• Daytime high: 3 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -5 C

Thursday

• Chance for scattered flurries
• Daytime high: 4 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -3 C

Friday

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high: 9 C
• Evening: overnight scattered showers, low -1 C

Saturday

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high: 11 C
• Evening: some cloud, low 1 C

Sunday

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high: 14 C
• Evening: some cloud, low 2 C

Today's pic was sent by Richie on the weekend. What a cool angle!

Rich Hannah captured the Calgary Tower in front of a full moon.

We love to see your pictures of weather, wildlife, and pets – submit your photos here, email me here, or tweet them over.