Unemployment in Alberta remains steady, population growth continues to drive up Calgary’s unemployment

New data shows Calgary’s unemployment rate ranks amongst the highest in the country as its growth in population continues to outpace the availability of job opportunities.

According to Statistics Canada's November 2024 Labour Force Survey, released on Friday, Calgary's jobless rate climbed to 7.9 per cent from 7.7 per cent in October.

"The trend that we're seeing for Calgary in terms of unemployment is largely in line with the national trends across Canada," said Afiba Nyamekye, Director of Data and Intelligence at Calgary Economic Development (CED).

"We've had a large population growth, high labor force participation, and so that has led to a bit of slack in the labor market."

According to CED, Calgary lost 4,900 overall jobs from October to November 2024 (seasonally adjusted).

Jessica Berci is amongst the thousands of Calgarians looking for a job.

"I've been off work for almost six months – and there's nothing that indicates that I couldn't be off work for the next six months – so that’s a bit of a concern," she said.

The human resources professional says she thrives when working at a job that fits her values, but opportunities have dwindled as competition increases from newcomers to Alberta who move here for a lower cost of living.

"There really is the cost of living to take into consideration, and I am looking at jobs that are paying 20 to 30 per cent less than what I was making in my previous role, which is something to definitely consider.

"When you think about, we don't actually know what the prices are going to be in 2025 with what's going on with the U.S., what's going on with even produce and food prices either."

Berci is says she's staying optimistic as she consults with job recruitment organizations such as About Staffing.

Christina Schultz, recruitment manager with About Staffing, says there is still plenty of opportunity, but the timing for job seekers may be difficult during the holiday season.

"The way that holidays fall often has a dramatic impact on businesses and hiring times, so those who are unemployed are trying to evaluate right now if it is a time to continue looking, or is it time to pump the brakes and wait until the new year?" she said.

Schultz adds that despite some uncertainty, there are still plenty of opportunities in some Calgary sectors that are booming and in desperate need of workers.

"We’re always seeing a lot of the same industries that are really driving the economy, such as oil and gas, of course, but also manufacturing, supply chain and new home builds."

"Home builders right now are booming in Calgary. We can't keep up with building more houses for the increased populations, and so home builders have an abundance of opportunity at all levels, in all different positions."

Optimism in Alberta’s job market

Alberta's unemployment rate was largely unchanged in November, climbing a meager 0.2 percentage points to sit at 7.5 per cent.

The move takes the province's jobless rate back to where it sat in October.

Alberta is the province with the fourth-highest unemployment rate in Canada, behind Ontario (7.5 per cent), Prince Edward Island (eight per cent) and Newfound Land and Labrador (10.1 per cent).

Despite the unemployment rate remaining high, the City of Calgary and the province of Alberta are still generating plenty of jobs.

The survey noted employment increases in Alberta (+24,000; +1.0 per cent) and Quebec (+22,000; +0.5 per cent) accounted for most of the overall national employment increase (+51,000; +0.2 per cent) in November.

In Alberta, the employment gain in November was the third in four months, and pushed the employment rate in the province up 0.4 percentage points to 64.1 per cent.

Calgary also has the highest employment rate out of all Canadian major cities (64.8 per cent) and has held that spot consecutively for the last 11 months.

The ‘Blue Sky City’ also boasts the highest nationwide labour force participation rate at 70.4 per cent.

Despite a 0.3 percentage point decline from the month prior, Edmonton had the second-highest unemployment rate in Canada (8.3 per cent) behind only Windsor, Ont. (8.7 per cent).

Lethbridge saw a significant jump from 5.2 per cent to 5.7 per cent.

The Labour Force Survey examined the week of Nov. 10 to 16.

Bank of Canada expected to cut interest rates

The Bank of Canada will have its eye on Statistics Canada's latest numbers as it prepares for its interest rate announcement on Wednesday.

Several forecasters are widely expecting the central bank to deliver another interest rate cut, though there hasn’t been consensus on the size of that reduction.

ATB Financial Chief Economist Mark Parsons suggests that the central bank may opt for another hefty slash.

"We were originally thinking they might cut by 25 basis points or quarter percentage points," he said.

"But with this report showing the unemployment rate going up to 6.8 per cent nationwide that's the highest in some time, so we think the Bank of Canada might lean towards a 50 basis point cut when they meet next week."

Parsons notes that inflation is already under control at around the two per cent mark so he predicts that a 50-basis point cut may be a more favourable option.

"The economy in Canada is shrinking in per capita terms, so people are feeling the pinch," he said.

"Consumer spending hasn't been very strong, and the Bank of Canada has room to cut further, and we think that they should move relatively quick. It's a bit of a coin flip, honestly, between 25 and 50, but with this report, we're leaning more in the 50 camp."