Battle between UCP, NDP too close to call as provincial election inches closer: ThinkHQ
A new political poll surveying Albertans ahead of May's provincial election shows a deep divide within the province, with the governing United Conservative Party and Alberta's New Democrats fighting neck and neck for support.
ThinkHQ says if a provincial election were held tomorrow, the NDP hold a marginal edge with 46 per cent of the decided vote, statistically tied with the governing UCP with 45 per cent.
The firm says the Alberta Party remains well out of contention with only six per cent, followed by the Liberals at two per cent.
ThinkHQ Marc Henry says the governing UCP should have an easier path to re-election, with large support across rural Alberta.
"The results of this survey are a bit surprising, almost counter-intuitive," Henry said.
"The Smith government has released a 'chicken-in-every-pot' budget, are spending a lot on advertising the budget and their 'inflation-fighting' measures. Yet, they aren't seeing a return on that investment in the polls; in fact, they're down three points from January. Margin of error, but still."
ThinkHQ surveyed 1,122 people online between March 14 and 16.
Political experts say Calgary will be a battleground in the next election, deciding the outcome of the election.
ThinkHQ found the NDP lead in the city of Calgary among decided voters at 48 per cent, compared to 42 per cent for the UCP.
"If they can get that lead up to eight to 10 points, they'll win this," Henry said.
"The NDP basically need to get around 18 to 20 seats out of Calgary in order to win. The UCP need to hang on to six, seven or eight seats for them to win and not have to worry about other seats in other parts of the province."
However, the parties are evenly matched throughout the Calgary Metropolitan area, polling at 45 per cent each.
Premier Danielle Smith declined an interview with CTV outside her appearance in Cochrane at the Alberta Mid Sized Cities Mayors Caucus.
Her office says the party has come a long way in the polls since the fall.
"In the fall, the UCP was around 20 points down in the polls and now, less than six months later, we are tied with the NDP," press secretary Rebecca Polak said.
"This is a clear indication that Albertans have seen a positive change and have noted that our government is laser-focused on growing the economy, creating new opportunities, improving our health-care system and putting in the work to ensure that all Albertans can feel secure in their communities."
Joe Ceci, municipal affairs critic with Alberta’s NDP, says the ground made up in Calgary by the party speaks to what Calgarians are seeking in government come the next election.
"They can either vote for the UCP that is kind of doing things that people don't want, or they can focus on fixing health care, fixing education, making sure that we revitalize downtown Calgary," Ceci said.
In Edmonton, ThinkHQ says, voters are most likely to vote NDP, securing 64 per cent of the vote, compared with the UCP’s 24 per cent.
In small urban areas and rural communities, the UCP is expected to receive around more than 55 per cent of the vote.
One political scientist from the University of Lethbridge says there may be some divide from the staunch conservatives not supportive of a big budget recently passed by the UCP government.
"To some extent, the budget almost looks like it was an NDP budget," Trevor Harrison said.
"So, that goes against the grain of some people who have supported the party."
The poll found women or those under the age of 35 are more inclined to vote for Rachel Notley.
The majority of men and those over the age of 35 are more inclined to vote blue.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Alberta's provincial election is set for May 29.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
BREAKING Israeli forces seize Rafah border crossing in Gaza, putting ceasefire talks on knife's edge
Israeli tanks seized control of Gaza’s vital Rafah border crossing on Tuesday as Israel brushed off urgent warnings from close allies and moved into the southern city even as ceasefire negotiations with Hamas remained on a knife’s edge.
There's actually no such thing as vegetables. Here's why you should eat them anyway
The rumours are true: Vegetables aren't real — that is, in botany, anyway. While the term fruit is recognized botanically as anything that contains a seed or seeds, vegetable is actually a broad umbrella term.
The Met Gala was in full bloom with Zendaya, Jennifer Lopez, Mindy Kaling among the standout stars
The Met Gala and its fashionista A-listers on Monday included Jennifer Lopez, Zendaya and a parade of others in a swirl of flora and fauna looks on a green-tinged carpet lined by live foliage.
Mediterranean staple may lower your risk of death from dementia, study finds
A daily spoonful of olive oil could lower your risk of dying from dementia, according to a new study by Harvard scientists.
Noelia Voigt resigns as Miss USA, citing her mental health
Noelia Voigt, who was crowned Miss USA in November 2023, has announced she is resigning from her role, saying the decision is in the best interest of her mental health.
An El Nino-less summer is coming. Here's what that could mean for Canada
As Canadians brace themselves for summer temperatures, forecasters say a weakening El Nino cycle doesn’t mean relief from the heat.
Winnipeg man admits to killing four women, argues he's not criminally responsible
Defence lawyers of Jeremy Skibicki have admitted in court the accused killed four Indigenous women, but argues he is not criminally responsible for the deaths by way of mental disorder – this latest development has triggered a judge-alone trial rather than a jury trial.
Man banned from owning animals after fatal Calgary dog attack
The owner of three Calgary dogs that got loose and mauled a woman to death in 2022 has been ordered to pay a $15,000 fine within one year and banned from owning any animal for 15 years.
Have you been removed from your family doctor’s patient list for visiting an Ontario walk-in clinic?
Some Ontarians are expressing frustration after they said that they were removed from their family doctor’s patient list for visiting a walk-in clinic in a process being called “de-rostering.”