Calgary driving increasing COVID-numbers, according to wastewater tracking data, reproductive rate
COVID-19 transmission is increasing across Alberta but is spreading the fastest in Calgary according to data collected by the province's wastewater tracking system and analysis of the reproductive rate, or "R-value."
Alberta's R-value is at 1.15 which indicates exponential spread of the virus, according to Ryan Imgrund, an Ontario-based data analyst who presents his data on his website and social media profiles.
"Calgary right now is one of the top five hard hit municipalities (across Canada) when it comes to COVID-19 numbers," said Imgrund.
He said it means everyone 100 cases of COVID-19 will lead to 115 secondary infections in about three to four days.
Looking specifically at Calgary data, the city is considered the driver of spread in the province with an R-value of 1.25.
"Basically for every four people that are infected right now, they will lead to five more infections, and you can imagine if that happens every three to four days, four infections causing five infections, that is exponential growth," said Imgrund.
He added that the global trend for the month of July is to see a lull in transmission, and it isn't typical to see cases rising at this time.
Restrictions are nearly fully lifted across Canadian jurisdictions and PCR-testing has also been greatly reduced.
COVID-19 is being tracked in sewer water collected from numerous sites across the province, but Calgary is seeing the largest spike in detection according to average weekly samples.
Data for last week shows that Calgary had nearly as much community spread as it had during high points of the sixth wave of Alberta's pandemic in the spring.
Those suspicions were confirmed by Dr. Michael Parkins, the University of Calgary's team lead on COVID-19 wastewater tracking.
"What we've seen in our wastewater right now," Parkins said, "is that we have more than three times that peak SARS virus, SARS, cov, two viral load that we had with our Delta wave. So there's no doubt that we are well in the midst of the seventh wave (of COVID-19) right now."
SURGE WOULD STRAIN SYSTEM
Frontline workers say that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, but an eventual surge in patients would further compound Alberta's already strained healthcare system.
"We really need our public health officials and our leaders to speak to what what's going to happen with this rise in this R-value and really guide us. I think the frontlines are quite worried that this is going to translate into a lot more cases of COVID," said Dr. Paul Parks, president of emergency medicine at the Alberta Medical Association.
Some Calgary residents said the rise in cases is not surprising.
"Everyone's pretending COVID is over, no one wears masks and it's spreading everywhere so it's not that shocking," said Amy Shaw.
She added, "Cases will come, cases will go. It's probably only going to get worse when everyone's forced inside again."
Others said it's a matter of taking individual action to avoid catching the virus.
"I still think we have to be careful. I'm waiting for my second booster," said Marianne Jaromi.
"I don't think its going away anytime soon."
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
There's actually no such thing as vegetables. Here's why you should eat them anyway
The rumours are true: Vegetables aren't real — that is, in botany, anyway. While the term fruit is recognized botanically as anything that contains a seed or seeds, vegetable is actually a broad umbrella term.
'It looked so legit': Ontario man pays $7,700 for luxury villa found on Booking.com, but the listing was fake
An Ontario man says he paid more than $7,700 for a luxury villa he found on a popular travel website -- but the listing was fake.
The Met Gala was in full bloom with Zendaya, Jennifer Lopez, Mindy Kaling among the standout stars
The Met Gala and its fashionista A-listers on Monday included Jennifer Lopez, Zendaya and a parade of others in a swirl of flora and fauna looks on a green-tinged carpet lined by live foliage.
Israeli forces seize Rafah border crossing in Gaza, putting ceasefire talks on knife's edge
Israeli tanks seized control of Gaza's vital Rafah border crossing on Tuesday as Israel brushed off urgent warnings from close allies and moved into the southern city even as cease-fire negotiations with Hamas remained on a knife's edge.
Canadian cadets rock mullets and place second at U.S. military competition
Sporting mullets, Canadian Armed Forces officer cadets placed second in an annual military skills competition in the U.S.
Noelia Voigt resigns as Miss USA, citing her mental health
Noelia Voigt, who was crowned Miss USA in November 2023, has announced she is resigning from her role, saying the decision is in the best interest of her mental health.
Putin begins his fifth term as president, more in control of Russia than ever
Vladimir Putin began his fifth term Tuesday as Russian leader at a glittering Kremlin inauguration, setting out on another six years in office after destroying his political opponents, launching a devastating war in Ukraine and concentrating all power in his hands.
Winnipeg man admits to killing four women, argues he's not criminally responsible
Defence lawyers of Jeremy Skibicki have admitted in court the accused killed four Indigenous women, but argues he is not criminally responsible for the deaths by way of mental disorder – this latest development has triggered a judge-alone trial rather than a jury trial.
Mediterranean staple may lower your risk of death from dementia, study finds
A daily spoonful of olive oil could lower your risk of dying from dementia, according to a new study by Harvard scientists.