CALGARY -- There are now more people who have recovered from COVID-19 in Alberta than there are active cases. The numbers may look encouraging, but disease experts say they don't necessarily indicate that the virus is going away.
“It may be encouraging," says Dr. Christopher Mody, head of infectious disease at the University of Calgary’s Cumming School of Medicine. "But that’s not the statistic that I look at."
"The number I look at is 'What’s the number of new cases per day?'."
While provincial modelling updated early last week shows cases dropping to very low levels in mid-to late summer, the gradual easing of restrictions will impact that model’s accuracy.
In building the models and planning for the future, there is one especially critical number.
"How many people is one person going to infect?"
The so-called R-value for COVID-19 without any precautions is somewhere between two and three. So, across a population, each sick person will give it to that many others.
Falling case numbers mean each person is, on average, giving it to less than one other person.
Dr. Mody says Albertans have done very well in flattening the curve — lowering the number of active cases at any one time — but that also means we will be living with the virus for months to come.
So far, research has shown that while the virus is changing, there is nothing to indicate it is becoming easier to spread or more severe, which is good news for health officials trying to contain the damage and save lives.
