What impact will the U.S. election have on Canada's energy sector?

Canada's energy industry is preparing for an unpredictable few months as the United States gets set to elect its next president.

The patch is watching closely as the two main political parties in the U.S. present extremely different views on the sector and its outcomes.

Canadian oil shipments to the U.S. have reached record levels in recent months, and the two countries act as each other's largest crude importer.

So, how would a November Democrat win compare to a Republican one?

Trump's tariffs

Many experts believe one candidate's trade promises present the biggest challenge for Canada's oil patch.

In front of last week's Republican convention, former president Donald Trump promised another term would mean big things in energy — including a mandate to "drill baby, drill."

But there's uncertainty around what that could mean in the long run.

Trump wants to keep everything — from production to consumption — close to home.

He's pledging a 10 per cent tariff on all imports to keep things local.

Could a drilling push also be a push toward energy independence?

Alberta's senior representative to the United States says it would get tricky on this side of the border.

"That makes us nervous, whether it's in respect to energy, agriculture, manufacturing — any and all sectors," James Rajotte said.

"We get nervous when the focus is exclusively on 'buy American.' The market is so integrated."

Even without energy independence, Trump tariffs would directly harm the country — and province — that acts as America's No. 1 provider.

"It continues to be the world's most important bilateral energy relationship," University of Minnesota law professor James Coleman said.

"So one of the things to watch out for is, is this a broad-based attack on trade? Or is it more about removing dependence on the strategic competitors?"

Democratic dilemma?

President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party didn't waste any time killing the Keystone XL Pipeline in 2021.

The move cost Albertans roughly $1.3 billion and is still cited by the provincial government as a mistake.

So the province is likely looking at vice-president and presumptive nominee Kamala Harris with some caution.

While a handful of experts say to "expect the same as (Biden)" when it comes to the oil and gas industries, Harris is seen as more left-leaning on energy policy.

She's previously been a loud advocate for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and making oil giants accountable for their output.

At one point before becoming vice-president, Harris suggested an all-out ban on fracking.

That all means a blue win might make it harder for any other Keystone-sized projects to be approved, according to Coleman.

"That's probably where I would look for the biggest changes, are those kind of big infrastructure projects where politics might play a role more than bureaucratic decision or scientific decision-making," he said.

Alberta lobbies

Rajotte was part of an Alberta delegation at the RNC and will attend the Democratic convention next month.

While on the ground, his focus is the economy and how the two governments can easily benefit one another.

"Obviously, we don't choose sides and let Americans choose the administration and Congress but we prepare for every scenario," Rajotte said.

Alberta's premier is acutely aware of the impact November's vote will have on energy policy but Danielle Smith is also staying diplomatic.

In a statement to CTV News, Smith wrote that her government will need to be proactive in getting its message out on both sides of the aisle.

"I think we're going to have a great relationship with America regardless of who is in the White House because we have had a great relationship when it was a Trump presidency before and when it's been a Biden presidency," the statement reads.

"I think (the winner) changes the nature of the conversation and maybe the emphasis that we have but I think we'll continue to have a robust trading relationship, regardless of who is in the White House."

Smith previously acknowledged getting new energy infrastructure built is easier under the Republicans but has also pointed out the Democrats have recently taken the same legal side as her government on the Enbridge Line Five project.

TC Energy sponsorship

Calgary-based TC Energy, the oil giant responsible for the failed Keystone XL Line, lost its legal bid to recoup $15 billion from the U.S. government earlier this month.

It said last week a Trump win won’t resurrect the project.

But the company is likely still holding out hope that a red victory is profitable.

It acted as a sponsor of the RNC host committee last week.

CTV News has repeatedly asked the company if it will be present at the Democratic equivalent, but those requests have gone unanswered.