Blizzard-like conditions possible in southern Alberta on Saturday

UPDATE: I waited, this time. I had to! I had to see just how many extreme cold warnings would get dropped off ahead of New Years Eve... I was a perfect combination of "not surprised" and "underwhelmed," as only a few areas well to the northwest did. But that's not overly surprising, because, well... this.

 

So, what then is the point in dropping all of them, if by Sunday, much of the province returns to it? It'd be a second round of the same teaser we just got! Maybe it does happen later on for much of western Alberta... regardless, we're far from the other side of this event.

A quick peek at wind gust potential in the southwest shows increases over what was forecast this morning. Not quite to the 110 km/h marker, but the conditions remain just fine for it. BUT, here's the nice part; the statement involving the word "Blizzard" cleared out in the 3 o'clock hour! Visibility will be poor, at times, but no longer does it fall under the purview of blizzard-like. We'll take it.

Dress warmly this evening; the majority of warmth will rise up late Saturday and early Sunday; models show our temperatures beginning to stagnate by the early afternoon Sunday, with the arctic outbreak beginning closer to midnight. HOWEVER. Model behaviour is almost always slow on these. There's a chance for wind to pick up in Calgary earlier in the evening.

 

 

What a double-whammy. First, the return of extreme cold warnings (those’ll likely move along Friday for a fair half of the province), and now, winter storm warnings!?

Catching breaks is not Alberta’s forte.

So, to reiterate from yesterday — the extreme cold warnings were replaced because of potential of -40 wind chill values across the swath of the foothills up to Grande Prairie, and all the way back down to Lethbridge.

For the former, it absolutely lines up; GP is sitting at -40 with the wind chill as of this writing in the 6 o’clock hour. Lethbridge has no wind chill, thanks to a momentary lack of wind.

Calgary has its coolest wind chill of -32 at the moment. The potential was (and still may be) there for a lot of communities, and I agree with Environment Canada’s assessment — this is a ‘better safe than sorry’ scenario.

I bet the meteorologist who gets to slam down the “Clear” button on these is going to feel pretty good later on today. That said, pockets of northern Alberta and east-central Alberta may not be so fortunate. The west wind cycling in as a reinforcement of seasonal temperatures won’t press in those areas.

Okay, so, winter storm watch time.

The reports of strengthening west wind were in the article yesterday. To save you the click, I said gusts in the 80 km/h range are expected. The winter storm watches are projecting gusts from 90-110 km/h in a wide swathe that encompasses Cardston, Crowsnest Pass, K-Country, Lethbridge, and Claresholm (plus associated regions, such as Canmore and Okotoks).

The first line of these watches is “Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday” – the qualifiers for that are:

• Snow or blowing snow, which reduces visibility to less than 400 metres;
• 40 km/h wind gusts or higher, and;
• The first two pieces lasting four hours or more.

These are for Saturday. The total snow in the forecast for Lethbridge and Pincher Creek over the next day: 0 cm. So what you’re looking at here is the heavy wind scooping the light snow and playing havoc through the morning of Jan. 1.

It checks out. And, as the alerts suggest, the warming temperatures will improve and abate these conditions; warm wind and high-ice-content snow don’t mix all that well, after all.

Beyond everything above, the Saturday-Sunday combo of temperatures that will feel like comparative “shorts weather” (this is hyperbole) are still expected to be outliers in a chilly long-range forecast.

The drop is coming. Again. Throw a couple logs on the fire. We’re in for another long week.

Happy New Year to you and yours, reader. I’m sure some of your celebratory plans have changed over the past week-and-a-half.

I used to frequent the saying, “make it a great day” – and I hope you’re able to do that today, this evening, and through the weekend. See you in 2022!

Your five-day forecast:

Tonight

• Mainly clear, low -25 C

Saturday

• New Year's Day - Mainly sunny
• Daytime high: -4 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -10 C

Sunday

• Partly cloudy, late-day cold front
• Daytime high: 0 C
• Evening: snow, low -22 C

Monday

• Cloudy, late flurry risk
• Daytime high: -21 C
• Evening: overnight flurries, low -24 C

Tuesday

• AM flurries, then partly cloudy
• Daytime high: -24 C
• Evening: overnight flurries, low -27 C

Wednesday

• Mainly sunny
• Daytime high: -22 C
• Evening: mainly clear, low -27 C

Our pic today is out Millarville-way, taken by George Jackson. It’s a good reminder that while we often discuss shorter walks for the puppers, livestock abroad are also not having a blast in these conditions – but they need strolls, too. Thank a farmer for the long hours, when time allows.

You can submit your photos here, email me here, or tweet them over.