Energy's boom could spare Calgary from the worst of 2023's expected recession: economists
A new outlook on Calgary's economy for the rest of this year and into 2023 suggests that while the city is riding high on housing and retail figures, it will not escape challenges posed by high inflation and recession.
But te report, from the Conference Board of Canada, says that the city could be spared from some of the worst of the recession.
That's because of the energy industry's 2022 resurgence.
"Alberta is sitting on a resource that's extremely valuable to the world economy right now, especially with the disruptions in the worldwide flows," economic forecaster Ted Mallett told CTV News. "We are looking at really stalled growth for the next three quarters across the country, but (the oil and gas sector) should help the Calgary economy tremendously."
The city's real GDP regained its pre-pandemic peak in the first quarter of 2022, setting the stage for a predicted 6.3 per cent GDP expansion in 2022. That's the highest increase since the oil collapse in 2014, according to the board.
The agency says even with oil prices levelling out next year, Calgary's GDP growth will sit at about 3.8 per cent in 2023.
That's well above Canada's expected economic growth of 1.2 per cent.
It's calling for a local GDP rise of 2.7 per cent in 2024.
"We are all facing higher inflation, the uncertainty brought on by the (Russian) invasion (of Ukraine) and those higher interest rates," ATB Financial's Rob Roach said. "Alberta is in the same rough waters. However, our boat is a little bit different because we are getting a boost from commodities, especially oil and gas and agricultural commodities.
"That's enough to keep our economy growing."
And while growing GDP won't pay inflated groceries bills or refinance mortgages, Calgary's situation will likely mean more hiring and investment in the city. It may also encourage government spending, or the extension of some household energy and fuel programs, that could trickle down to resident chequebooks.
"That doesn't necessarily translate into every household and every business doing well, but there is some positive ripple effect out," Roach said.
Nationwide, the board says Saskatoon will outpace all other major Canadian cities – even Calgary – in terms of 2022 GDP growth.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
2 Albertans accused of threatening to kill Trudeau, Freeland, Singh
Men from Edmonton and Calgary are accused of threatening to kill some of Canada's top government leaders.
Four suicides in New Zealand linked to Ontario's Kenneth Law
New Zealand's coroner has ruled that four of its citizens died after ordering products from an Ontario man who is facing murder charges for selling poisonous substances.
Athletes show off stylish and expensive team clothing for the 2024 Olympic Games
Canadian athletes attempting to reach the podium at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games will also be looking fashionable for the entire world to see.
These are the four leading vice-presidential picks for Kamala Harris' campaign
No one knows the importance of selecting the right running mate better than Vice President Kamala Harris.
Toronto woman charged with voyeurism after taking 'intimate' photos during massage: police
A Toronto woman who allegedly took 'intimate' photos of an individual who was getting a massage has been charged with voyeurism, police say.
Bear showing 'signs of severe stress' in Florida likely just overheated: wildlife commission
An allegedly depressed bear that had shown "signs of severe stress" in Florida has captured the attention of many after a post from local sheriffs.
IN PICTURES Here's what Calgary's new event centre 'Scotia Place' will look like
The name of Calgary’s new event centre was unveiled on Monday. The arena will be called Scotia Place.
What steps are you taking to address mortgage costs? We want to hear from you
Are you one of the many Canadians struggling to keep up with their mortgage payments and trying to keep their home? CTVNews.ca wants to hear from you.
Kamala Harris endorsement excites Democrats, but what could it mean for Canada?
U.S. President Joe Biden's endorsement of Vice-President Kamala Harris as his possible replacement stirred excitement among Democrats, but one analyst has concerns about what a potential Harris presidency would mean for Canada.