Tension mounts in Canada ahead of U.S. federal election

With the U.S. federal election next Tuesday, tension is mounting even north of the border.

More than 600,000 Americans living in Canada are eligible to vote in next week's election, and even Canadian citizens have a lot at stake in the outcome.

The race for the presidency of the United States is so tight, Americans living in Canada could make the difference, according to Bruce Heyman, former U.S. ambassador to Canada.

"Canada can't influence our election, and Canadians shouldn't be involved in it," Heyman said, "but Americans living in Canada may actually be the swing factor here."

Democrats typically have more influence in Canadian ex-pat voting, outnumbering Republicans in Canada by about three to one, but voter turnout could sway that influence.

Typically, Americans in Canada have a very low voter turnout — between six and eight per cent.

However, both Republicans and Democrats are working to change that.

"Our voters are very motivated, and many of them who have really not been so interested in voting have gotten their ballots and voted this time," said Georganne Burke of Republicans Overseas.

"We'll never see all 600,000 Americans in Canada vote, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that percentage come up from eight per cent to something higher."

Diana Keto-Lambert of Democrats Abroad says her group has been working to ensure American-in-Canada voters claim their ballots.

"We try and tell them as much as possible that their vote has a significant impact, not just in the presidential race, but also the down ballots as well. So, them voting for senators and for the house, which is always up every two years, is incredibly important to get laws passed," Keto-Lambert said.

"So, that's something that we do with voter outreach, doing registration drives and letting them know. Over at the university, we had students saying, 'Well, I've never lived there. Can I even vote?' Well, absolutely you can. It's your right, and I would say your duty."

While Canadians have no say in the U.S. election, they have a stake in its outcome.

Both candidates are offering protectionist economic policies, and Kamala Harris is an environmental advocate, leaving many fearing her stance on resource development.

But Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, says a Donald Trump administration may be no better for Alberta's oil and gas industry.

"A Harris administration would really represent a lot of continuity from a (Joe) Biden administration. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) brought in a lot of subsidies for renewable energy production. I imagine that would continue," Young said.

"I think Trump would not be as favourable to renewables, but I'm not sure that he would welcome Canadian or Albertan oil in the way that some might imagine. He has spoken about oilsands as 'dirty oil' and he has expressed real ambitions for the United States to be a significant producer of its own oil, so maybe not such a win for oil and gas."

The CEO of Calgary's Chamber of Commerce says it is Trump's promise of tariffs on "everything from outside the USA" that has her losing sleep.

"I've never been so nervous because I'm really, really afraid of what might happen," Deborah Yedlin said.

"A 10 per cent tariff on our energy exports — $166 billion goes into the U.S. from an energy standpoint, so 10 per cent, $16 billion — that's a huge hit when you think of Calgary as an energy capital."

Yedlin says it's not just the energy industry that would be hit hard by sweeping tariffs, but almost every sector of Canada's economy.

"We know that 78 per cent of Canada's exports go south. 90 per cent of Alberta's exports go south. So, we're talking agriculture, (we're) talking energy, we're talking the inputs that end up being finished in Canada and go back into the States," she said.

"That's a supply chain issue, and how are you going to untangle those supply chains from a tariff standpoint? ... This should be of significant concern from an economic standpoint."

Political analysts say the Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement may offer only temporary protection for Canada.

That's because it is up for renegotiation in 2026.

Trump has already said he wants to renegotiate, and Harris voted against it at its inception.