Stormy (and a little smoky) in Calgary Thursday

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Let's start with smoke. The current (1400 MST) look is that smell-able amounts exist in parts of southeast Calgary... but that's limited. The expectation is that it shall stay aloft for a little while longer... there's only a slight chance it sinks, now.

On to storms.

There are already storm-tops peaking at seven kilometres as of 2:15 - these formed rapidly just north of Cochrane, on a trajectory to the northeast, and are producing storm warnings this hour. Further down the line, a brand-new tornado watch exists in Saskatchewan against Alberta's central boundary (in Meadow Lake). Factor in watches and warnings for the Alberta region, and this zone of lifted air is set for activity today. It aims to push south toward Calgary later this afternoon, closer to 1600 MST.

MORNING EDITION: The smoke model forecast predicts that we’ll see a little bit more settle in before our Thursday is done, and that a similar haze and smell to yesterday should be expected.

The overall effect will be minor, although Calgary’s airport sensor positions the majority of the day at an air quality health index rating of four, or moderate risk. For the moment, we're at a two, or low risk.

This afternoon, a large low will press moisture and instability from the foothills. The exact location of this motion is yet to be determined, but the resultant effect will likely be thundershowers, some of which will be severe. Calgary runs in this zone, where hail and strong, potentially warning-level gusts should be expected.

The timing of this event is a hot debate among forecast models. Still, the mid-afternoon held the initial bid, but there are now a couple of models tracking that cold front a couple of hours later.

The trough that follows the cold front will plunge us into 50 km/h gusts Friday, with the swing from our upper air pressing us into the teens. That all precedes a ridge of high pressure, however, which is the leading element for Saturday, Sunday, and beyond.

Your five day forecast:

Thursday

Evening: mainly clear, low 8 C

Friday

Partly cloudy, windy

Daytime high: 16 C

Evening: some cloud, low 8 C

Saturday

Sunny

Daytime high: 24 C

Evening: clear, low 10 C

Sunday

Sunny

Daytime high: 27 C

Evening: clear, low 12 C

Monday

Sunny

Daytime high: 29 C

Evening: clear, low 13 C

Tunday

Sunny

Daytime high: 30 C

Evening: clear, low 13 C

A big thanks to Fereidoon sent along a pic of the Glenmore Reservoir at sunset.

 

The CTV Calgary weather picture of the day for Aug. 4, 2022. (Fereidoon)You can send your pictures to [e-mail].