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Warm and windy Tuesday, with a chance of late-day thunderstorms

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Daytime highs in southern Alberta will be in the low to high 20s on Tuesday but that warmth will be short-lived.

A ridge of high pressure tracking east will be replaced by a pacific trough moving through British Columbia Tuesday.

The base of that trough is expected to advance ahead of the northern component of the system as it enters Alberta, creating a negative tilt (northwest to southeast axis) which can lead to severe weather due to heightened instability.

Winds are expected to intensify as they enter the region from the south and southwest throughout the day Tuesday and that shear could play a role in storm development.

Despite consistent rain this month the missing component to the equation is moisture – one of the key ingredients in thunderstorm development.

That being said – there is a chance this lack of moisture advection could be overcome due to strong wind shear and lift, so while the overall risk of thunderstorms remains low, the intensity of potential thunderstorms is moderate.

Isolated evening and nocturnal thunderstorms are possible in southern Alberta Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday, with the greatest threats associated with wind.

In central Alberta, thunderstorms are possible if daytime highs can reach their peak potential. Strong wind and hail is possible in this area if storms do develop.

Daytime highs in Calgary will be slightly below a seasonal high of 18 C from Wednesday through Saturday with sunshine likely most days.

Overnight lows after Tuesday are expected to reach between four and six degrees.

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