A warm weekend in Calgary ahead of a cooling early next week

UPDATE: This forecast just keeps on keepin' on. We haven't hit our expected high of 3 just yet, but southwesterly wind is going to pick up into the afternoon and evening, generating temperatures that will periodically warm us overnight.

The Saturday-Sunday forecast line is more-or-less the same, though I've trended down on Sunday's low. I'm wondering if the forecasted west wind doesn't pop us above the called high of 8 tomorrow, too! I'll sit with that.

I may (MAY) be a little shy on Monday's high - and yes, I'm suggesting warmer than 7 C is possible, as we precede evening snow! That's another warm, west wind day. At this time, that forecast snowfall is still sitting at a couple of centimetres.

Well, how about that. This morning's cloud layer and some extra sheltering from our incoming high above kept us from seeing negative temperatures overnight. I track a fair amount of weather data every day to continue improving accuracy, and only a single model predicted anything within seven degrees of what we got overnight.

It doesn't play much into our high for today, however. We'll aim for a low positive, experience a brief dip late this evening, then start to power up Saturday morning. This has created a strange pattern for our overnight conditions, where yesterday, the high for Friday was 3 C (maintaining that) and the low was 5 C (less bullish on that, now). Forecasting out of that little dip, we'll drop closer to freezing, this time around.

Westerlies are returning this evening to southern Alberta, and we'll begin tracing that effect late. That'll be the key marker for yet another warming trend to carry us through Saturday, with local gusts popping to the 40 km/h range in the afternoon. Sunday, we'll coast a little, keeping sunny but dropping free of that wind.

Monday afternoon is the maintained marker for "the drop" – cooler temperatures are just ahead, but it'll be reminiscent of yesterday; early warming, then a late-day plunge. The biggest difference in the early look is additional moisture, which is easily one of the most variable components of a longer-range forecast. Currently calling for five centimetres of overnight snow Monday into Tuesday but that often pares back for us when this far out. Still, it's something to watch. It's worth reiterating – the five-day forecast looks ominous, but the five-day we'll have on Monday shows that this colder passage is quite short-lived, compared to other (unmentionable) moments this winter.

If you're a morning reader or a new reader (welcome!), a note: these articles are updated by 3 p.m. with the latest info.

Have a safe and happy weekend!

YOUR FIVE-DAY FORECAST

Tonight

• Some cloud, low 0 C

Saturday

• Sunny
• Daytime high 8 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -5 C

Sunday

• Sunny
• Daytime high 3 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -2 C

Monday

• Building cloud, cold front, late-day flurries
• Daytime high 7 C
• Evening: flurries, low -12 C

Tuesday

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high -11 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -17 C

Wednesday

• Partly cloudy
• Daytime high -7 C
• Evening: some cloud, low -9 C

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