Calgary got a month's worth of snow in 2 days, more expected this weekend

Spring is a transitional season in Calgary and as such, has historically includes the snowiest month of the year (March) which averages 22.7 centimetres of snow, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) 30-year 'climate normals' data.

Before this week, March 2024 had already exceeded that monthly average, thanks to a snowy start when 25.3 centimetres fell at YYC Calgary International Airport between March 1 and 6.

The snow from this past week has this month now at more than double the March monthly average.

As expected, the Calgary area saw varying snowfall totals during the recent multi-day snowfall event.

In a weather summary Friday morning, ECCC noted the airport recorded 23 centimetres of snow from Tuesday night until Thursday evening, with third party reports of 10 to 20 centimetres in Calgary.

Other snowfall totals recorded at ECCC weather stations include (in centimetres): Sundre (18), Brooks and Medicine Hat (15), Lethbridge (14), Rocky Mountain House, Waterton and Claresholm (12), Banff (7) and the Edmonton International Airport (5).

More snow is expected in southern Alberta in the coming days, but there is model disagreement regarding how much snow Calgary will receive.  

The incoming precipitation will enter the province over the southern Foothills, and be enhanced by the same synoptic setup that produced upsloping flow this week (pushing moisture back into the foothills due to the counter-clockwise circulation around the low pressure system over southern Alberta and B.C.)

The area of disagreement comes in how far north the snow will migrate north.

Some models suggest Calgary will sit on the northern edge of the incoming system and receive minimal amounts, and other models are forecasting another wave of heavy snow for the Calgary area.

These are very difficult scenarios to forecast for, due to the Rocky Mountains and their impact on weather as well as the southern entry point of this moisture.

It is likely Calgary will see an additional three to five centimetres of snow on Friday with another five to eight centimetres Saturday, but this will be an evolving scenario.

The Calgary region could also end up with either a lot more or a lot less snow than that.

Daytime highs will stay colder for the next four days (around 11 to 13-degrees below the seasonal 5 C) and overnight lows are expected to range from -9 C to -12 C until Monday.

The southerly-riding polar jet should move east early next week making room for a ridge of high pressure that will edge into Alberta and B.C. and bring more sunshine into the Calgary area

Daytime highs are expected to hit 4 C by Wednesday – and while that is an improvement, it is still slightly below-seasonal.