Consumer and business confidence low for 2023: BoC

Canadians are cutting their spending and expect a recession to arrive later this year, according to a pair of surveys released by the Bank of Canada on Monday.

The surveys found nearly 90 per cent of Canadians are cutting back travel spending and nearly 60 per cent are cutting back on groceries.

"Everyone is actually expecting that we are moving towards a recession within the next 12 months or so," said Anupam Das, economist at Mt Royal University.

"I think they are not wrong, (however), I cannot predict if there will be a recession."

The survey found 70 per cent of Canadians expect a recession is coming in 2023 and 66 per cent of businesses agree.

 

Read more: BOC's survey on consumer expectations

Read more: BOC's survey on business expectations

 

The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision next week, with many expecting yet another increase.

Past inflation cycles have generally been caused by consumers buying more.

The latest cycle has largely been caused by supply issues.

"It's still an inflation, whether it's a demand side or a supply side," Das said.

"Policymakers tried to cut that inflation, but I think it's the consumers who are the biggest sufferers in this case."

In general, people are having more trouble accessing credit and more than half of us don't expect our wages will catch up.

Watchers and analysts are expecting another quarter-point interest rate bump.

If that happens, the base interest rate will be at 4.5 per cent, its highest point since 2004.