Evening thundershower risk for Calgary; rainy for the next few days
AFTERNOON UPDATE: Very recently, a few severe thunderstorm watches sprang up from Environment Canada for the evening's events:
This morning, I mentioned the small chance of this populating much closer to Calgary - even now, I'm sticking to it.
Rainfall totals in the coming days are quite variable, but the Monday precipitation potential has stayed the course; a few models painted for an earlier start to showers, and that just hasn't panned. Tuesday still offers some measure of instability, as does Wednesday now, but barring actual storms, evening sports should hold steady, due to the lightness of those showers.
Thursday could remain the outlier, with a precipitation total somewhere between 10-20 mm, wrapping by miudday Friday.
MORNING EDITION: A caveat with this post: I know it's not a fix, and I'll get to that right after. Our first map here is growing season precipitation – this only dates out as far as June 16, and so will not include the ~eight millimetres we’ve had over the past couple of days.
Our second map is the same data spam, but showing our "departure from normal" relative to seasonal conditions:
Why it's not a perfect fix: For one, ongoing dry conditions persist in the southern reaches. Two, areas that are at or above a seasonal precipitation total now only did so in the past couple of weeks; while this moisture is great for growing, the season started a while ago, and dry conditions through May, especially, didn't do our farmer friends any favours.
I cannot speak as an agriculture expert, but here's hoping a number of crops got the bolster they needed.
…and if not quite yet, this is the week to help them out, and the week to catch up on your reading or that show you've been missing out on.
Similar to yesterday, showers – and isolated severe storms – will push from the foothills and drive in a few millimetres of rain in parts of the city. These storms will be marginal, and less likely to produce severe watches or warnings.
We'll repeat this trend Tuesday, then wrap into an Alberta low Wednesday and beyond, which has no mechanisms to hold it here; Wednesday will be somewhat dreary, but should open to the heaviest rain the week can offer through Thursday. Friday is looking lighter for now, but I'd be unsurprised if later this week, it splits the difference with Thursday.
It'll be a good one for a late spring cleaning.
YOUR FIVE-DAY CALGARY FORECAST
Monday
- Evening: mainly cloudy, scattered showers, low 8 C
Tuesday
- Partly cloudy, scattered showers, chance of thundershowers
- Daytime high: 22 C
- Evening: mainly cloudy, low 11 C
Wednesday
- Mainly cloudy, scattered showers
- Daytime high: 23 C
- Evening: mainly cloudy, low 9 C
Thursday
- Rain
- Daytime high: 12 C
- Evening: showers, low 7 C
Friday
- Cloudy, scattered showers
- Daytime high: 14 C
- Evening: showers, low 6 C
Saturday
- Partly cloudy
- Daytime high: 18 C
- Evening: some cloud, low 8 C
Today's pic is a lovely summer scene sent in by Shannon in Balzac:
Submit your weather photos here to see them featured in our article, and perhaps even as the pic of the day during our news at six! You can also share my way on Twitter, or to our Instagram at @CTVCalgaryWeather.
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