Kevin Stanfield's forecast: Heat continues for Calgary; storm risk Friday evening

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Once again, widespread thunderstorm watches have been issued along the foothills, including Calgary; southern Alberta is also widely reached. A few storms have kicked off in the 4 o'clock hour, but the capping inversion (that layer of stable air pushing back against the storms) has held fast in most places. Our forecast otherwise is more reminiscent of a milder week in Palm Springs; it's hot, it's sunny, and it's dry.

MORNING EDITION: Yesterday sure swung for the record-book fences. Almost made it, too! We finished the day at 31.7 C, having set a record of 32.2 C in both 1939 and before that in 1906.

It’s unlikely that the heat warning in place snaps for very long, if at all over the coming days. While we’re certainly unlikely to see if leave through Friday or Saturday (temperatures are still parameterized for heat warnings there), the brief reprieve from 29 C or warmer highs doesn’t last all that long; another line of hefty temperatures is just around the bend.

Stormy Friday evening: Similar to yesterday, activity is expected, and a few storms may become severe… also similar to yesterday, inhibiting factors are running rampant across southern Alberta. The warmth adds plenty of energy; the general stability produces a capping layer, preventing much of that energy from ignition. The dry layer near the surface also plays a part. Calgary has a shot, but we may watch those storm clouds develop south of the city, instead. Again.

Smoke: As of this writing (7 a.m.), the smoke situation is fine near Calgary. A few sites around Calgary are at the bare minimum of human effect, which is still an Air Quality Health Index reading of two, as represented as of this writing by Environment Canada. Their readout notes forecast maximums, and there’s an honest chance of it, but some models represent remaining at an AQHI between two and three for much of the day, though haze may be a factor.

Your five day forecast:

Friday

Evening: risk of showers early, low 15 C

Saturday

Mainly sunny

Daytime high: 30 C

Evening: clear, low 14 C

Sunday

Sunny

Daytime high: 26 C

Evening: clear, low 11 C

Monday

Sunny

Daytime high: 27 C

Evening: clear, low 12 C

Tuesday

Sunny

Daytime high: 29 C

Evening: clear, low 14 C

Wednesday

Sunny

Daytime high: 31 C

Evening: clear, low 17 C

Anna is just north of Pincher Creek, and snapped this lovely shot Wednesday evening. Thanks for sharing it, Anna!

 

The CTV Calgary weather photo of the day for Friday, Aug. 12, 2022. (Anna) Submit your weather photos here to see them featured in our article, and perhaps even as the pic of the day during our news at six! You can also share on Twitter, or to our Instagram at @CTVCalgaryWeather.