UCP leads Alberta polling; NDP leadership race could shift some voters' support: Leger

Alberta's provincial flag flies on a flag pole in Ottawa, Monday July 6, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

The United Conservative Party continues to lead the polls in Alberta, but the results of the upcoming NDP leadership race could shift some voters’ opinions, according to recent polling data.

A March Leger poll among Albertans showed 49 per cent of decided voters intended to vote for the UCP, while 41 per cent said they would vote for the NDP.

The support for the UCP was unchanged from the last survey in February, while the percentage of Albertans intending to vote for the NDP was down one percentage point from 42.

Another six per cent would vote for the Alberta Party, while four per cent would vote for other parties and candidates.

Among the 830 decided voters polled, the UCP held a majority of support from the men polled (52 per cent) and residents 55 years and older (59 per cent) – compared to 38 per cent and 36 per cent respectively for the NDP.

For women, 46 per cent said they would vote for the UCP while 43 per cent were in favour of the NDP.

The NDP led the 18 to 34-year-old demographic, with 45 per cent of support, compared to the UCP’s 41 per cent. Meanwhile, in the 35-54 group, the UCP led with 46 per cent versus the NDP’s 42 per cent.

Leger also polled Albertans on how Naheed Nenshi winning the NDP leadership race and becoming the party’s leader would affect their vote.

The former Calgary mayor announced he would be entering the NDP leadership race on March 11, however, part of the poll was conducted before that official announcement took place.

Among respondents, 40 per cent said they would be more likely to support the NDP if Nenshi was the leader, including 14 per cent much more likely and 25 per cent somewhat more likely.

On the other side, 32 per cent would be less likely to support the party, including eight per cent somewhat less likely and 24 per cent much less likely.

“Former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi’s entry into the NDP leadership could have a somewhat positive impact on the likelihood of Albertans voting for the party should he win the leadership,” Leger said on its website.

“Four in 10 (40 per cent) Albertans would be more likely to vote for the Alberta NDP if Naheed Nenshi were to win the leadership race—drawing some potential support from current UCP voters as well as in the city of Calgary.”

Twenty-eight per cent did not know how Nenshi winning the leadership race would affect their vote.

Leger polled 1,001 Alberta respondents 18 years and older between March 8 and 11. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent.

Report - Leger AB March Polling - March 13 2024 by CTV Calgary Digital on Scribd