Calgary's economy looks promising for 2025, but uncertainty looms over U.S. election: economic outlook

Calgary's skyline is seen in this undated image. (Patrick Dun/Pexels)

Continued population growth, improved market access for energy, and expansion across sectors are expected to position Calgary and Alberta well in the upcoming fiscal year, according to the latest 2025 outlook from Calgary Economic Development (CED).

Top economists and business leaders are in Calgary on Tuesday to share their insights on these trends, although the results of the upcoming U.S. presidential election and other geopolitical factors could weigh on the economy in the years ahead.

“The outcome of the U.S. election is pivotal for Canada – and Alberta’s economy,” said Bruce Heyman, former U.S. Ambassador to Canada, former partner, Goldman Sachs and recently-appointed CEO at Power Sustainable.

“Policies, tariffs and priorities of either successful administration will significantly alter the trajectory of trade for the country not only in 2025 but the next four years ahead.”

Brad Parry, president and CEO of CED, also notes that the economy remains strong heading into 2025, but signs of uncertainty remain on the horizon.

 “The future of our economy cannot be left to chance,” Parry said.

“Calgary must remain laser-focused on building a resilient economy by diversifying emerging sectors and attracting skilled talent, new ventures and investment.”

Other topics up for discussion include how the United States being Canada’s number one trading partner could impact everything from immigration, trade polices and tariffs to energy and tech sector development for Albertan and Canadian businesses in the coming year.

In its quarterly economic outlook released last week, ATB Financial predicted that Alberta’s economy is on the uptick following the COVID-19 pandemic, but political uncertainty is highlighted as a risk.

Mark Parsons, vice-president and chief economist with ATB Financial forecasts real GDP growth in Alberta will be 2.5 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2025, outperforming the national economy projections of 1.2 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively.

“Alberta is poised to be a growth leader in Canada next year,” said Parsons.

“But risks remain elevated, and we're moving from a period of high inflation and labour shortages to an era where geopolitical concerns take center stage.”

Parsons added that the province of Alberta remains resilient, however, due to increased energy market access, strong population growth and the strength of emerging industries including tech, hydrogen, and aviation.

Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek agrees that city investments in the future will come with more investor confidence.

With Calgary and Alberta poised to lead the nation in GDP growth, demonstrating stability and certainty to the market is critical for our economy,” she said.

Other speakers at Tuesday’s event include Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, CED’s board chair Joe Lougheed and Lisa McDonald, group head of Everyday Financial Services with ATB Financial.